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Mixco vs Guastatoya Prediction— Guatemala - Liga Nacional

Matchday 5 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 21:00

Mixco

PPG 2.33 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLWL

4 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Guastatoya

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWLL

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 50.9% vs bookmaker-implied 47.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.5%0-17.8%0-22.9%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-015.9%1-111.8%1-24.4%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.0%2-18.9%2-23.3%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.0%3-14.5%3-21.7%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-12.4%4+-20.9%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.9% 47.6% 2.10 +6.9%

Draw 25.8% 34.7% 2.88 -15.4%

Away win 23.3% 27.0% 3.70 -8.3%

Over 2.5 50.1% 40.8% 2.45 +22.8%

Over 3.5 28.1% 22.2% 4.50 +15.9%

BTTS 49.1% 50.0% 2.00 -1.8%

Home O1.5 40.0% 41.7% 2.40 -4.0%

Away O1.5 17.9% 27.4% 3.65 -20.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 71%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 46.9%

Bet Hit 82%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob49.1%

H 51% / xG 1.5-0.7 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.9%

#2 1–1 11.8%

#3 2–0 12.0%

#4 0–0 10.5%

#5 0–1 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mixco1.5

Guastatoya0.7

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.1% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

MIXCO · PPG 2.33

GUASTATOYA · PPG 1.17

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.77 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Mixco (H) 50.9%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +6.9%

Draw 25.8%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -15.4%

Guastatoya (A) 23.3%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -8.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mixco face Guastatoya in Guatemala - Liga Nacional on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mixco a 51% chance, the draw 26% and Guastatoya 23%, so Mixco are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Mixco and 0.7 for Guastatoya (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mixco are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 1.17 for Guastatoya. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +22.8%. This match finished 4-2.

Mixco vs Guastatoya Prediction— Guatemala - Liga Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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