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Aurora vs Malacateco Prediction— Guatemala - Liga Nacional

Matchday 6 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 23:00

Aurora

PPG 1.86 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLWW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Malacateco

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLWL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 65.8% vs bookmaker-implied 47.6% — a clear edge.

+38.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-13.8%0-21.8%0-30.5%0-4+0.2%1 1-09.4%1-18.6%1-24.0%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.6%2-19.8%2-24.5%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-08.0%3-17.4%3-23.4%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-07.7%4+-17.1%4+-23.3%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.3% 51.3% 1.95 +11.7%

Draw 21.0% 31.3% 3.20 -19.7%

Away win 21.7% 28.2% 3.55 -13.8%

Over 2.5 63.0% 48.8% 2.05 +29.1%

Over 3.5 39.3% 27.0% 3.70 +45.4%

BTTS 56.3% 55.6% 1.80 +1.3%

Home O1.5 65.8% 47.6% 2.10 +38.2%

Away O1.5 25.7% 31.3% 3.20 -10.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 71%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 46.9%

Bet Hit 82%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob56.3%

H 57% / xG 2.3-0.9 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.6%

#2 2–0 10.6%

#3 2–1 9.8%

#4 1–0✓ 9.4%

#5 3–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aurora2.3

Malacateco0.9

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.0% · O3.5 PROB 39.3%

Form & verdict PPG

AURORA · PPG 1.86

MALACATECO · PPG 0.60

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.34 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Aurora (H) 57.3%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV +11.7%

Draw 21.0%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -19.7%

Malacateco (A) 21.7%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -13.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Aurora face Malacateco in Guatemala - Liga Nacional on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aurora a 57% chance, the draw 21% and Malacateco 22%, so Aurora are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Aurora and 0.9 for Malacateco (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aurora are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 0.60 for Malacateco. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +87.6%. This match finished 1-0.

Aurora vs Malacateco Prediction— Guatemala - Liga Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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