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Guastatoya vs Municipal Prediction— Guatemala - Liga Nacional

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 23:00

Guastatoya

PPG 1.76 · HOME

UPCOMING

Municipal

PPG 1.76 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.37, combined xG 2.40 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.1%0-19.2%0-24.7%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-012.6%1-112.7%1-26.5%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.7%2-18.8%2-24.5%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.0%3-14.1%3-22.1%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-11.9%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.2% — — —

Draw 27.4% — — —

Away win 27.5% — — —

Over 2.5 47.7% — — —

Over 3.5 28.6% — — —

BTTS 51.8% — — —

Home O1.5 40.3% — — —

Away O1.5 30.9% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 68%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 59%

ROI 52.0%

Bet Hit 86%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob51.8%

H 45% / xG 1.4-1.0 / U2.5 48% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 0–0 9.1%

#3 1–0 12.6%

#4 2–1 8.8%

#5 2–0 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Guastatoya1.4

Municipal1.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.7% · O3.5 PROB 28.6%

Form & verdict PPG

GUASTATOYA · PPG 1.76

MUNICIPAL · PPG 1.76

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.37, combined xG 2.40 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Guastatoya (H) 45.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 27.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Municipal (A) 27.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Guastatoya face Municipal in Guatemala - Liga Nacional on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Guastatoya a 45% chance, the draw 27% and Municipal 28%, so Guastatoya are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Guastatoya and 1.0 for Municipal (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Guastatoya are averaging 1.76 points per game versus 1.76 for Municipal.

Guastatoya vs Municipal Prediction— Guatemala - Liga Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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