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Guastatoya vs Marquense Prediction— Guatemala - Liga Nacional

Matchday 6 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 21:00

Guastatoya

PPG 1.94 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWLL

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Marquense

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

LAST 5

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// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 56.1% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-14.6%0-21.7%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-012.5%1-19.3%1-23.5%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.8%2-19.6%2-23.6%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-08.7%3-16.5%3-22.5%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-07.2%4+-15.4%4+-22.0%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.1% 65.4% 1.53 -14.2%

Draw 22.1% 27.8% 3.60 -12.3%

Away win 21.8% 17.4% 5.75 +15.2%

Over 2.5 53.5% 48.1% 2.08 +11.3%

Over 3.5 31.7% 27.9% 3.58 +13.5%

BTTS 52.7% 49.3% 2.03 +7.0%

Home O1.5 58.8% 54.1% 1.85 +8.8%

Away O1.5 19.6% 21.7% 4.60 -5.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 71%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 46.9%

Bet Hit 82%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob52.7%

H 56% / xG 2.0-0.7 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.8%

#2 1–1 9.3%

#3 1–0 12.5%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 3–0 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Guastatoya2.0

Marquense0.7

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

GUASTATOYA · PPG 1.94

MARQUENSE · PPG 0.86

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.30 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Guastatoya (H) 56.1%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -14.2%

Draw 22.1%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -12.3%

Marquense (A) 21.8%

ODDS 5.75 · IMPLIED 17.4% EV +15.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Guastatoya face Marquense in Guatemala - Liga Nacional on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Guastatoya a 56% chance, the draw 22% and Marquense 22%, so Guastatoya are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Guastatoya and 0.7 for Marquense (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Guastatoya are averaging 1.94 points per game versus 0.86 for Marquense. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +13.5%. This match finished 1-2.

Guastatoya vs Marquense Prediction— Guatemala - Liga Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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