Today / Guatemala - Liga Nacional / Antigua GFC vs Comunicaciones

Antigua GFC vs Comunicaciones Prediction— Guatemala - Liga Nacional

Matchday 5 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 00:00

Antigua GFC

PPG 2.32 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWL

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Comunicaciones

PPG 0.79 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWLL

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 66.1% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-13.2%0-21.0%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-012.0%1-17.5%1-22.3%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.2%2-18.8%2-22.7%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-011.1%3-16.9%3-22.1%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-011.3%4+-17.0%4+-22.2%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 66.1% 61.7% 1.62 +7.1%

Draw 19.8% 29.4% 3.40 -19.6%

Away win 14.1% 20.0% 5.00 -17.7%

Over 2.5 59.7% 47.6% 2.10 +25.4%

Over 3.5 36.6% 28.6% 3.50 +28.1%

BTTS 49.1% 48.8% 2.05 +0.7%

Home O1.5 65.1% 56.2% 1.78 +15.9%

Away O1.5 16.6% 22.2% 4.50 -15.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 71%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 46.9%

Bet Hit 82%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob49.1%

H 66% / xG 2.4-0.6 / O2.5 60% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0✓ 14.2%

#2 3–0 11.1%

#3 1–0 12.0%

#4 1–1 7.5%

#5 2–1 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Antigua GFC2.4

Comunicaciones0.6

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ANTIGUA GFC · PPG 2.32

COMUNICACIONES · PPG 0.79

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.73 for Home, form 2.32 vs 0.79 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Antigua GFC (H) 66.1%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV +7.1%

Draw 19.8%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -19.6%

Comunicaciones (A) 14.1%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -17.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Antigua GFC face Comunicaciones in Guatemala - Liga Nacional on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Antigua GFC a 66% chance, the draw 20% and Comunicaciones 14%, so Antigua GFC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Antigua GFC and 0.6 for Comunicaciones (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Antigua GFC are averaging 2.32 points per game versus 0.79 for Comunicaciones. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +28.1%. This match finished 2-0.

Antigua GFC vs Comunicaciones Prediction— Guatemala - Liga Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

More Guatemala - Liga Nacional Predictions