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Municipal vs Xelajú Prediction— Guatemala - Liga Nacional

Matchday 5 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 02:00

Municipal

PPG 2.44 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLWW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Xelajú

PPG 0.91 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWDLW

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 62.9% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.7%0-14.1%0-21.3%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-014.0%1-18.6%1-22.7%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.6%2-19.0%2-22.8%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-010.1%3-16.3%3-21.9%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-08.6%4+-15.3%4+-21.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.9% 69.4% 1.44 -9.4%

Draw 21.6% 26.3% 3.80 -10.8%

Away win 15.5% 15.4% 6.50 +0.4%

Over 2.5 53.9% 55.6% 1.80 -3.0%

Over 3.5 31.6% 35.3% 2.83 -10.6%

BTTS 47.9% 54.1% 1.85 -11.4%

Home O1.5 59.6% 64.5% 1.55 -7.6%

Away O1.5 16.6% 20.6% 4.85 -11.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 71%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 46.9%

Bet Hit 82%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob47.9%

H 63% / xG 2.1-0.6 / O2.5 54% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0✓ 14.6%

#2 1–0 14.0%

#3 1–1 8.6%

#4 3–0 10.1%

#5 0–0 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Municipal2.1

Xelajú0.6

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

MUNICIPAL · PPG 2.44

XELAJÚ · PPG 0.91

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.47 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Municipal (H) 62.9%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -9.4%

Draw 21.6%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -10.8%

Xelajú (A) 15.5%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV +0.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Municipal face Xelajú in Guatemala - Liga Nacional on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Municipal a 63% chance, the draw 22% and Xelajú 16%, so Municipal are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Municipal and 0.6 for Xelajú (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Municipal are averaging 2.44 points per game versus 0.91 for Xelajú. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +4.7%. This match finished 2-0.

Municipal vs Xelajú Prediction— Guatemala - Liga Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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