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Xelajú vs Mixco Prediction— Guatemala - Liga Nacional

Matchday 6 ·Monday, August 31, 2026, 01:00

Xelajú

PPG 2.15 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDLW

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Mixco

PPG 0.84 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.8 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.6% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-15.4%0-22.5%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-011.3%1-110.3%1-24.7%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.8%2-19.9%2-24.5%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-06.9%3-16.3%3-22.9%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-05.1%4+-14.7%4+-22.1%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.5% 66.7% 1.50 -19.8%

Draw 23.3% 26.7% 3.75 -7.6%

Away win 23.2% 16.7% 6.00 +23.5%

Over 2.5 59.6% 55.6% 1.80 +7.3%

Over 3.5 36.4% 33.3% 3.00 +9.2%

BTTS 55.2% 54.6% 1.83 +1.0%

Home O1.5 55.8% 61.7% 1.62 -9.6%

Away O1.5 26.1% 25.0% 4.00 +2.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 71%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 46.9%

Bet Hit 82%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob55.2%

H 54% / xG 1.9-0.9 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 2–0 10.8%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 11.3%

#5 0–0 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Xelajú1.9

Mixco0.9

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

XELAJÚ · PPG 2.15

MIXCO · PPG 0.84

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.00 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Xelajú (H) 53.5%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -19.8%

Draw 23.3%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -7.6%

Mixco (A) 23.2%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +23.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Xelajú face Mixco in Guatemala - Liga Nacional on Monday, August 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Xelajú a 54% chance, the draw 23% and Mixco 23%, so Xelajú are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Xelajú and 0.9 for Mixco (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Xelajú are averaging 2.15 points per game versus 0.84 for Mixco. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +24.6%. This match finished 4-1.

Xelajú vs Mixco Prediction— Guatemala - Liga Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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