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Municipal vs Cobán Imperial Prediction— Guatemala - Liga Nacional

Matchday 3 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 23:00

Municipal

PPG 2.42 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Cobán Imperial

PPG 0.94 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 60.8% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.5%0-14.2%0-21.0%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-016.7%1-18.3%1-22.0%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-016.5%2-18.2%2-22.0%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-010.8%3-15.4%3-21.3%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-08.4%4+-14.2%4+-21.0%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 60.8% 73.5% 1.36 -17.3%

Draw 23.8% 25.0% 4.00 -2.9%

Away win 15.4% 12.8% 7.80 +12.1%

Over 2.5 45.9% 48.8% 2.05 -5.9%

Over 3.5 28.8% 27.0% 3.70 +3.9%

BTTS 45.5% 43.5% 2.30 +4.7%

Home O1.5 55.4% 60.6% 1.65 -8.6%

Away O1.5 17.4% 16.7% 6.00 +2.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 68%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 59%

ROI 52.0%

Bet Hit 86%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob45.5%

H 61% / xG 2.0-0.5 / O2.5 46% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0✓ 16.5%

#2 1–0 16.7%

#3 3–0 10.8%

#4 0–0 8.5%

#5 1–1 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Municipal2.0

Cobán Imperial0.5

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

MUNICIPAL · PPG 2.42

COBÁN IMPERIAL · PPG 0.94

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.48 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Municipal (H) 60.8%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV -17.3%

Draw 23.8%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -2.9%

Cobán Imperial (A) 15.4%

ODDS 7.80 · IMPLIED 12.8% EV +12.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Municipal face Cobán Imperial in Guatemala - Liga Nacional on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Municipal a 61% chance, the draw 24% and Cobán Imperial 15%, so Municipal are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Municipal and 0.5 for Cobán Imperial (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Municipal are averaging 2.42 points per game versus 0.94 for Cobán Imperial. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +10.4%. This match finished 2-0.

Municipal vs Cobán Imperial Prediction— Guatemala - Liga Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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