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Malacateco vs Xelajú Prediction— Guatemala - Liga Nacional

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 02:00

Malacateco

PPG 1.60 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

Xelajú

PPG 0.81 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.4%0-110.2%0-25.5%0-32.0%0-4+0.7%1 1-012.0%1-113.1%1-27.1%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.7%2-18.3%2-24.5%2-31.6%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.3%3-13.6%3-21.9%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.5%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.0% 52.4% 1.91 -25.5%

Draw 32.7% 34.7% 2.88 -5.8%

Away win 28.2% 23.1% 4.33 +13.3%

Over 2.5 45.9% 40.8% 2.45 +12.5%

Over 3.5 26.6% 22.2% 4.50 +11.8%

BTTS 49.2% 48.8% 2.05 +0.9%

Home O1.5 36.9% 44.4% 2.25 -17.0%

Away O1.5 35.4% 25.0% 4.00 +41.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 68%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 59%

ROI 52.0%

Bet Hit 86%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 22%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob49.2%

H 39% / xG 1.3-1.1 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 9.4%

#3 1–0 12.0%

#4 2–1 8.3%

#5 0–1 10.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Malacateco1.3

Xelajú1.1

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.9% · O3.5 PROB 26.6%

Form & verdict PPG

MALACATECO · PPG 1.60

XELAJÚ · PPG 0.81

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.19, combined xG 2.36 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Malacateco (H) 39.0%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -25.5%

Draw 32.7%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -5.8%

Xelajú (A) 28.2%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +13.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Malacateco face Xelajú in Guatemala - Liga Nacional on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Malacateco a 39% chance, the draw 33% and Xelajú 28%, so Malacateco are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Malacateco and 1.1 for Xelajú (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Malacateco are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 0.81 for Xelajú. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +41.6%. This match finished 2-2.

Malacateco vs Xelajú Prediction— Guatemala - Liga Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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