Today / Guatemala - Liga Nacional / Comunicaciones vs Malacateco

Comunicaciones vs Malacateco Prediction— Guatemala - Liga Nacional

Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 01:00

Comunicaciones

PPG 1.96 · HOME

UPCOMING

Malacateco

PPG 0.70 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 63.4% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.9%0-15.1%0-21.6%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-015.0%1-19.6%1-23.1%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.2%2-19.1%2-22.9%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-08.9%3-15.8%3-21.9%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-06.5%4+-14.2%4+-21.4%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.4% 60.6% 1.65 +4.6%

Draw 21.8% 30.3% 3.30 -16.8%

Away win 14.9% 19.0% 5.25 -13.1%

Over 2.5 50.8% 42.6% 2.35 +19.4%

Over 3.5 30.0% 23.1% 4.33 +29.9%

BTTS 47.7% 46.5% 2.15 +2.5%

Home O1.5 54.6% 50.0% 2.00 +9.2%

Away O1.5 17.2% 21.1% 4.75 -11.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 68%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 59%

ROI 52.0%

Bet Hit 86%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 37%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob47.7%

H 63% / xG 1.9-0.6 / O2.5 51% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 14.2%

#2 1–0 15.0%

#3 1–1 9.6%

#4 0–0 7.9%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Comunicaciones1.9

Malacateco0.6

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.8% · O3.5 PROB 30.0%

Form & verdict PPG

COMUNICACIONES · PPG 1.96

MALACATECO · PPG 0.70

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.25 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Comunicaciones (H) 63.4%

ODDS 1.65 · IMPLIED 60.6% EV +4.6%

Draw 21.8%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -16.8%

Malacateco (A) 14.9%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV -13.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Comunicaciones face Malacateco in Guatemala - Liga Nacional on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Comunicaciones a 63% chance, the draw 22% and Malacateco 15%, so Comunicaciones are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Comunicaciones and 0.6 for Malacateco (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Comunicaciones are averaging 1.96 points per game versus 0.70 for Malacateco. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +29.9%.

Comunicaciones vs Malacateco Prediction— Guatemala - Liga Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

More Guatemala - Liga Nacional Predictions