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Marquense vs Cobán Imperial Prediction— Guatemala - Liga Nacional

Matchday 5 ·Monday, August 24, 2026, 00:00

Marquense

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

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2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Cobán Imperial

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

LAST 5

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// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.8% vs bookmaker-implied 51.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.4%0-17.6%0-23.1%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-014.6%1-111.8%1-24.8%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.4%2-19.2%2-23.7%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.9%3-14.8%3-21.9%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-12.6%4+-21.1%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.4% 55.6% 1.80 -5.7%

Draw 24.3% 30.8% 3.25 -12.6%

Away win 23.3% 23.8% 4.20 -1.3%

Over 2.5 50.5% 46.5% 2.15 +8.6%

Over 3.5 28.7% 25.3% 3.95 +8.0%

BTTS 51.8% 51.8% 1.93 -0.0%

Home O1.5 45.7% 48.8% 2.05 -6.3%

Away O1.5 23.5% 26.7% 3.75 -7.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 71%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 46.9%

Bet Hit 82%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob51.8%

H 52% / xG 1.6-0.8 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.6%

#2 1–1 11.8%

#3 2–0 11.4%

#4 0–0 9.4%

#5 2–1✓ 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Marquense1.6

Cobán Imperial0.8

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

MARQUENSE · PPG 1.50

COBÁN IMPERIAL · PPG 0.80

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.74 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Marquense (H) 52.4%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -5.7%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -12.6%

Cobán Imperial (A) 23.3%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -1.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Marquense face Cobán Imperial in Guatemala - Liga Nacional on Monday, August 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Marquense a 52% chance, the draw 24% and Cobán Imperial 23%, so Marquense are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Marquense and 0.8 for Cobán Imperial (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Marquense are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.80 for Cobán Imperial. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +8.6%. This match finished 2-1.

Marquense vs Cobán Imperial Prediction— Guatemala - Liga Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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