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Cobán Imperial vs Antigua GFC Prediction— Guatemala - Liga Nacional

Matchday 2 ·Wednesday, August 19, 2026, 21:00

Cobán Imperial

PPG 1.97 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLLL

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Antigua GFC

PPG 1.27 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.5%0-18.6%0-24.3%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.4%1-112.5%1-26.3%1-32.1%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.1%2-19.1%2-24.6%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.4%3-14.4%3-22.2%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-12.2%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.1% 51.3% 1.95 -12.1%

Draw 26.0% 31.3% 3.20 -10.1%

Away win 28.9% 27.8% 3.60 +2.4%

Over 2.5 50.2% 48.8% 2.05 +2.9%

Over 3.5 28.4% 27.0% 3.70 +3.0%

BTTS 53.0% 55.6% 1.80 -4.6%

Home O1.5 40.0% 47.6% 2.10 -16.0%

Away O1.5 31.1% 31.3% 3.20 -0.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 71%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 46.9%

Bet Hit 82%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob53.0%

H 45% / xG 1.5-1.0 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 1–0 12.4%

#3 2–1 9.1%

#4 0–0 8.5%

#5 2–0 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cobán Imperial1.5

Antigua GFC1.0

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 28.4%

Form & verdict PPG

COBÁN IMPERIAL · PPG 1.97

ANTIGUA GFC · PPG 1.27

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.45, combined xG 2.46 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Cobán Imperial (H) 45.1%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -12.1%

Draw 26.0%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -10.1%

Antigua GFC (A) 28.9%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +2.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cobán Imperial face Antigua GFC in Guatemala - Liga Nacional on Wednesday, August 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cobán Imperial a 45% chance, the draw 26% and Antigua GFC 29%, so Cobán Imperial are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Cobán Imperial and 1.0 for Antigua GFC (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cobán Imperial are averaging 1.97 points per game versus 1.27 for Antigua GFC. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +3.0%. This match finished 0-2.

Cobán Imperial vs Antigua GFC Prediction— Guatemala - Liga Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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