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Antigua GFC vs Guastatoya Prediction— Guatemala - Liga Nacional

Matchday 3 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 01:00

Antigua GFC

PPG 2.29 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Guastatoya

PPG 1.52 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 54.0% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-16.1%0-22.9%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-011.5%1-110.9%1-25.2%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.3%2-19.8%2-24.7%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-06.2%3-15.9%3-22.8%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-04.2%4+-14.0%4+-21.9%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.0% 60.6% 1.65 -10.9%

Draw 24.8% 30.3% 3.30 -10.9%

Away win 21.2% 19.0% 5.25 +6.8%

Over 2.5 50.8% 46.5% 2.15 +9.2%

Over 3.5 29.7% 25.6% 3.90 +9.5%

BTTS 52.9% 50.0% 2.00 +5.8%

Home O1.5 49.2% 52.4% 1.91 -6.0%

Away O1.5 27.7% 23.1% 4.33 +12.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 68%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 59%

ROI 52.0%

Bet Hit 86%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.9%

H 54% / xG 1.8-1.0 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 2–0✓ 10.3%

#3 1–0 11.5%

#4 2–1 9.8%

#5 0–0 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Antigua GFC1.8

Guastatoya1.0

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.8% · O3.5 PROB 29.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ANTIGUA GFC · PPG 2.29

GUASTATOYA · PPG 1.52

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.85 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Antigua GFC (H) 54.0%

ODDS 1.65 · IMPLIED 60.6% EV -10.9%

Draw 24.8%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -10.9%

Guastatoya (A) 21.2%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV +6.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Antigua GFC face Guastatoya in Guatemala - Liga Nacional on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Antigua GFC a 54% chance, the draw 25% and Guastatoya 21%, so Antigua GFC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Antigua GFC and 1.0 for Guastatoya (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Antigua GFC are averaging 2.29 points per game versus 1.52 for Guastatoya. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +17.0%. This match finished 2-0.

Antigua GFC vs Guastatoya Prediction— Guatemala - Liga Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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