Leagues / GERMANY / Regionalliga - SudWest
Regionalliga - SudWest
▼ THIN-EDGE LEAGUE
SHARP MARKET — MODEL EDGE BELOW BREAK-EVEN HERE
// Model accuracy
How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 44 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.
31.8%
1X2
14/44
68.2%
O/U 2.5
30/44
68.2%
BTTS
30/44
22.7%
Exact score
10/44
// Published picks
Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.
23
Settled
60.9%
Hit rate
14/23
1.49
Avg odds
-13.7%
ROI
-3.1u
Picks by market
OVER 2.5 · N=15 66.7% HIT · AVG 1.45 · -5.8% ROI
AWAY WIN · N=4 25.0% HIT · AVG 1.58 · -66.0% ROI
BTTS · N=3 100.0% HIT · AVG 1.46 · +45.7% ROI
HOME WIN · N=1 0.0% HIT · AVG 1.85 · -100.0% ROI
Picks by verdict tier
🎯 Strong bet
3
Bets
33%
Hit
-54.7%
ROI
✓ Solid
4
Bets
50%
Hit
-25.0%
ROI
✓ Fair / Caution
6
Bets
83%
Hit
+20.3%
ROI
⚠ Low confidence
10
Bets
60%
Hit
-17.2%
ROI
Match log
DateMatchPickEVFTResult
May 2026 // 15 PICKS · 11 HIT · 4 MISS
16 MAY Bayern Alzenau vs Freiberg Over 2.5 3–3 HIT16 MAY Steinbach vs Bahlinger Over 2.5 -15% 4–2 HIT16 MAY Sandhausen vs Homburg Over 2.5 -9% 1–3 HIT16 MAY S. Kickers vs Grossaspach Over 2.5 -11% 2–0 MISS16 MAY Kickers Offenb. vs Hessen Kassel Over 2.5 -9% 1–3 HIT16 MAY Fulda-Lehnerz vs FSV Frankfurt BTTS -15% 1–2 HIT16 MAY FSV Mainz B vs Freiburg B Over 2.5 -17% 0–4 HIT16 MAY Eintracht Trier vs Schott Mainz Over 2.5 -11% 2–0 MISS9 MAY Bahlinger vs Eintracht Trier Over 2.5 2–2 HIT9 MAY Schott Mainz vs Balingen BTTS 2–3 HIT9 MAY Homburg vs Bayern Alzenau Over 2.5 5–2 HIT9 MAY Hessen Kassel vs Steinbach BTTS 2–0 MISS9 MAY FSV Frankfurt vs FSV Mainz B Over 2.5 1–1 MISS9 MAY Freiburg B vs Kickers Offenb. Over 2.5 1–3 HIT9 MAY Freiberg vs Sandhausen Over 2.5 1–2 HIT