Leagues / GERMANY / Regionalliga - SudWest
Regionalliga - SudWest
▼ THIN-EDGE LEAGUE
SHARP MARKET — MODEL EDGE BELOW BREAK-EVEN HERE
// Model accuracy
How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 53 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.
34.0%
1X2
18/53
67.9%
O/U 2.5
36/53
66.0%
BTTS
35/53
26.4%
Exact score
14/53
// Published picks
Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.
12
Settled
41.7%
Hit rate
5/12
1.57
Avg odds
-39.7%
ROI
-4.8u
Picks by market
OVER 2.5 · N=7 57.1% HIT · AVG 1.53 · -16.0% ROI
AWAY WIN · N=4 25.0% HIT · AVG 1.58 · -66.0% ROI
HOME WIN · N=1 0.0% HIT · AVG 1.85 · -100.0% ROI
Picks by verdict tier
🎯 Strong bet
3
Bets
33%
Hit
-54.7%
ROI
✓ Solid
3
Bets
33%
Hit
-44.3%
ROI
✓ Fair / Caution
3
Bets
67%
Hit
-5.0%
ROI
⚠ Low confidence
3
Bets
33%
Hit
-54.7%
ROI
Match log
DateMatchPickEVFTResult
September 2026 // 1 PICK · 0 HIT · 1 MISS
1 SEPT Hessen Kassel vs Eintracht Trier BTTS 0–1 MISSAugust 2026 // 8 PICKS · 6 HIT · 2 MISS
29 AUG Eintracht Trier vs SV Sandhausen BTTS 2–0 MISS29 AUG TSV Steinbach vs Hessen Kassel Over 2.5 2–1 HIT29 AUG FC 08 Homburg vs Stuttgarter Kickers Over 2.5 0–1 MISS28 AUG Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. vs FSV Frankfurt Over 2.5 2–2 HIT22 AUG Kickers Offenbach vs FSV Mainz 05 II BTTS 3–1 HIT22 AUG FSV Frankfurt vs FC Astoria Walldorf Over 2.5 3–0 HIT22 AUG Stuttgarter Kickers vs Freiburg II Over 2.5 2–2 HIT22 AUG SV Sandhausen vs FC 08 Homburg Over 2.5 1–3 HITMay 2026 // 6 PICKS · 4 HIT · 2 MISS
16 MAY Eintracht Trier vs Schott Mainz Over 2.5 -11% 2–0 MISS16 MAY Steinbach vs Bahlinger Over 2.5 -15% 4–2 HIT16 MAY Sandhausen vs Homburg Over 2.5 -9% 1–3 HIT16 MAY S. Kickers vs Grossaspach Over 2.5 -11% 2–0 MISS16 MAY Kickers Offenb. vs Hessen Kassel Over 2.5 -9% 1–3 HIT16 MAY Fulda-Lehnerz vs FSV Frankfurt BTTS -15% 1–2 HIT