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TSV Steinbach vs Hessen Kassel Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - SudWest

Saturday, August 29, 2026, 12:00

TSV Steinbach

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

DDDW ·

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Hessen Kassel

PPG 1.30 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLL ·

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.2%0-14.9%0-23.7%0-31.9%0-4+1.0%1 1-06.1%1-19.3%1-27.1%1-33.6%1-4+1.9%2 2-05.9%2-19.0%2-26.8%2-33.5%2-4+1.9%3 3-03.8%3-15.7%3-24.4%3-32.2%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-14.3%4+-23.3%4+-31.7%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.0% — — —

Draw 23.4% — — —

Away win 29.6% — — —

Over 2.5 62.9% — — —

Over 3.5 39.3% — — —

BTTS 62.9% — — —

Home O1.5 56.3% — — —

Away O1.5 47.9% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 34%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 26%

ROI -39.7%

Bet Hit 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.3%

#2 2–1✓ 9.0%

#3 1–2 7.1%

#4 2–2 6.8%

#5 2–0 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

TSV Steinbach1.9

Hessen Kassel1.5

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.9% · O3.5 PROB 39.3%

Form & verdict PPG

TSV STEINBACH · PPG 1.50

HESSEN KASSEL · PPG 1.30

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.40 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

TSV Steinbach (H) 47.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 23.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Hessen Kassel (A) 29.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

TSV Steinbach face Hessen Kassel in Germany - Regionalliga - SudWest on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives TSV Steinbach a 47% chance, the draw 23% and Hessen Kassel 30%, so TSV Steinbach are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for TSV Steinbach and 1.5 for Hessen Kassel (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, TSV Steinbach are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.30 for Hessen Kassel. This match finished 2-1.

TSV Steinbach vs Hessen Kassel Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - SudWest

Match Preview & Prediction

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