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SV Sandhausen vs FC 08 Homburg Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - SudWest

Saturday, August 22, 2026, 12:00

SV Sandhausen

PPG 1.30 · HOME

LAST 5

DWLL ·

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

FC 08 Homburg

PPG 1.30 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWL ·

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-14.9%0-24.1%0-32.3%0-4+1.4%1 1-05.5%1-19.1%1-27.6%1-34.2%1-4+2.6%2 2-05.1%2-18.5%2-27.1%2-33.9%2-4+2.4%3 3-03.1%3-15.2%3-24.4%3-32.4%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-13.7%4+-23.1%4+-31.7%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.2% — — —

Draw 21.9% — — —

Away win 33.9% — — —

Over 2.5 64.6% — — —

Over 3.5 43.5% — — —

BTTS 63.2% — — —

Home O1.5 54.9% — — —

Away O1.5 48.5% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 34%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 26%

ROI -39.7%

Bet Hit 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.1%

#2 2–1 8.5%

#3 1–2 7.6%

#4 2–2 7.1%

#5 3–1 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

SV Sandhausen1.9

FC 08 Homburg1.7

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.6% · O3.5 PROB 43.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SV SANDHAUSEN · PPG 1.30

FC 08 HOMBURG · PPG 1.30

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.19 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

SV Sandhausen (H) 44.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

FC 08 Homburg (A) 33.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

SV Sandhausen face FC 08 Homburg in Germany - Regionalliga - SudWest on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives SV Sandhausen a 44% chance, the draw 22% and FC 08 Homburg 34%, so SV Sandhausen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for SV Sandhausen and 1.7 for FC 08 Homburg (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, SV Sandhausen are averaging 1.30 points per game versus 1.30 for FC 08 Homburg. This match finished 1-3.

SV Sandhausen vs FC 08 Homburg Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - SudWest

Match Preview & Prediction

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