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Eintracht Trier vs Schott Mainz Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - SudWest

Südwest - 34 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 12:00

Eintracht Trier

PPG 1.88 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Schott Mainz

PPG 0.94 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.8%0-13.5%0-22.2%0-30.9%0-4+0.4%1 1-06.5%1-18.1%1-25.1%1-32.1%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.5%2-19.5%2-25.9%2-32.5%2-4+1.0%3 3-05.8%3-17.3%3-24.6%3-31.9%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-05.9%4+-17.4%4+-24.6%4+-31.9%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.5% 66.7% 1.50 -19.8%

Draw 23.4% 23.1% 4.33 +0.8%

Away win 23.1% 21.1% 4.75 +5.8%

Over 2.5 63.9% 71.4% 1.40 -10.5%

Over 3.5 48.1% 48.8% 2.05 -1.4%

BTTS 59.7% 67.6% 1.48 -11.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 32%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 23%

ROI -13.7%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob59.7%

H 54% / xG 2.3-1.3 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.5%

#2 1–1 8.1%

#3 2–0✓ 7.5%

#4 3–1 7.3%

#5 2–2 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Eintracht Trier2.3

Schott Mainz1.3

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 48.1%

Form & verdict PPG

EINTRACHT TRIER · PPG 1.88

SCHOTT MAINZ · PPG 0.94

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.88) vs P(Home)=53.5%

Win probability 1X2

Eintracht Trier (H) 53.5%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -19.8%

Draw 23.4%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +0.8%

Schott Mainz (A) 23.1%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +5.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Eintracht Trier face Schott Mainz in Germany - Regionalliga - SudWest on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Eintracht Trier a 54% chance, the draw 23% and Schott Mainz 23%, so Eintracht Trier are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Eintracht Trier and 1.3 for Schott Mainz (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Eintracht Trier are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 0.94 for Schott Mainz. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +5.8%. This match finished 2-0.

Eintracht Trier vs Schott Mainz Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - SudWest

Match Preview & Prediction

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