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Steinbach vs Bahlinger Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - SudWest

Südwest - 34 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 12:00

Steinbach

PPG 1.56 · HOME

4 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Bahlinger

PPG 0.63 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.6%0-11.7%0-20.9%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-04.8%1-15.2%1-22.9%1-31.0%1-4+0.4%2 2-07.4%2-18.0%2-24.4%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.5%3-18.2%3-24.5%3-31.6%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-012.4%4+-113.5%4+-27.4%4+-32.7%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.2% 76.9% 1.30 -17.8%

Draw 21.1% 19.0% 5.25 +6.5%

Away win 15.7% 13.9% 7.20 +7.8%

Over 2.5 63.9% 75.2% 1.33 -15.0%

Over 3.5 59.7% 54.1% 1.85 +10.4%

BTTS 59.7% 64.5% 1.55 -7.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 32%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 23%

ROI -13.7%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-2

xG (home)3.1 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob59.7%

H 63% / xG 3.1-1.1 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 8.2%

#2 2–1 8.0%

#3 3–0 7.5%

#4 2–0 7.4%

#5 4–1 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Steinbach3.1

Bahlinger1.1

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 59.7%

Form & verdict PPG

STEINBACH · PPG 1.56

BAHLINGER · PPG 0.63

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.56) vs P(Home)=63.2%

Win probability 1X2

Steinbach (H) 63.2%

ODDS 1.30 · IMPLIED 76.9% EV -17.8%

Draw 21.1%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV +6.5%

Bahlinger (A) 15.7%

ODDS 7.20 · IMPLIED 13.9% EV +7.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Steinbach face Bahlinger in Germany - Regionalliga - SudWest on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Steinbach a 63% chance, the draw 21% and Bahlinger 16%, so Steinbach are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.1 for Steinbach and 1.1 for Bahlinger (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Steinbach are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 0.63 for Bahlinger. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +10.4%. This match finished 4-2.

Steinbach vs Bahlinger Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - SudWest

Match Preview & Prediction

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