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Kickers Offenbach vs FSV Mainz 05 II Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - SudWest

Saturday, August 22, 2026, 12:00

Kickers Offenbach

PPG 1.70 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWW ·

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

FSV Mainz 05 II

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLL ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.41 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-17.0%0-24.3%0-31.8%0-4+0.7%1 1-09.3%1-111.4%1-27.0%1-32.9%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.6%2-19.4%2-25.8%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-04.2%3-15.1%3-23.2%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-13.0%4+-21.9%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.0% — — —

Draw 24.4% — — —

Away win 28.6% — — —

Over 2.5 53.9% — — —

Over 3.5 31.6% — — —

BTTS 54.7% — — —

Home O1.5 47.4% — — —

Away O1.5 37.3% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 34%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 26%

ROI -39.7%

Bet Hit 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 2–0 7.6%

#4 1–0 9.3%

#5 1–2 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kickers Offenbach1.6

FSV Mainz 05 II1.2

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

KICKERS OFFENBACH · PPG 1.70

FSV MAINZ 05 II · PPG 1.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.41 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Kickers Offenbach (H) 47.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

FSV Mainz 05 II (A) 28.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Kickers Offenbach face FSV Mainz 05 II in Germany - Regionalliga - SudWest on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kickers Offenbach a 47% chance, the draw 24% and FSV Mainz 05 II 29%, so Kickers Offenbach are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Kickers Offenbach and 1.2 for FSV Mainz 05 II (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kickers Offenbach are averaging 1.70 points per game versus 1.20 for FSV Mainz 05 II. This match finished 3-1.

Kickers Offenbach vs FSV Mainz 05 II Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - SudWest

Match Preview & Prediction

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