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Sandhausen vs Homburg Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - SudWest

Südwest - 34 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 12:00

Sandhausen

PPG 1.38 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Homburg

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-16.5%0-26.4%0-34.2%0-4+3.3%1 1-04.7%1-19.3%1-29.2%1-36.1%1-4+4.7%2 2-03.4%2-16.7%2-26.7%2-34.4%2-4+3.4%3 3-01.6%3-13.2%3-23.2%3-32.1%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.6%4+-21.6%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.8% 41.7% 2.40 -17.1%

Draw 24.9% 26.7% 3.75 -4.0%

Away win 45.3% 41.7% 2.40 +8.7%

Over 2.5 63.9% 70.4% 1.42 -9.3%

Over 3.5 44.6% 48.8% 2.05 -8.6%

BTTS 59.7% 73.5% 1.36 -18.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 32%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 23%

ROI -13.7%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 47%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob59.7%

A 45% / xG 1.4-2.0 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.3%

#2 1–2 9.2%

#3 2–1 6.7%

#4 2–2 6.7%

#5 0–2 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sandhausen1.4

Homburg2.0

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 44.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SANDHAUSEN · PPG 1.38

HOMBURG · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.38), Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Sandhausen (H) 29.8%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -17.1%

Draw 24.9%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -4.0%

Homburg (A) 45.3%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +8.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sandhausen face Homburg in Germany - Regionalliga - SudWest on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sandhausen a 30% chance, the draw 25% and Homburg 45%, so Homburg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Sandhausen and 2.0 for Homburg (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sandhausen are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 1.50 for Homburg. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +8.7%. This match finished 1-3.

Sandhausen vs Homburg Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - SudWest

Match Preview & Prediction

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