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Kickers Offenb. vs Hessen Kassel Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - SudWest

Südwest - 34 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 12:00

Kickers Offenb.

PPG 1.50 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Hessen Kassel

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.8%0-15.0%0-24.3%0-32.5%0-4+1.6%1 1-05.1%1-19.0%1-27.9%1-34.6%1-4+3.0%2 2-04.7%2-18.2%2-27.1%2-34.2%2-4+2.7%3 3-02.8%3-14.9%3-24.3%3-32.5%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-13.4%4+-23.0%4+-31.7%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.8% 48.8% 2.05 -16.4%

Draw 23.5% 25.6% 3.90 -5.0%

Away win 35.7% 35.1% 2.85 +1.7%

Over 2.5 63.9% 70.4% 1.42 -9.3%

Over 3.5 47.7% 47.6% 2.10 +0.2%

BTTS 62.5% 71.4% 1.40 -12.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 32%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 23%

ROI -13.7%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob62.5%

H 41% / xG 1.8-1.7 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.0%

#2 2–1 8.2%

#3 1–2 7.9%

#4 2–2 7.1%

#5 3–1 4.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kickers Offenb.1.8

Hessen Kassel1.7

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 47.7%

Form & verdict PPG

KICKERS OFFENB. · PPG 1.50

HESSEN KASSEL · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.50), Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Kickers Offenb. (H) 40.8%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -16.4%

Draw 23.5%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -5.0%

Hessen Kassel (A) 35.7%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV +1.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kickers Offenb. face Hessen Kassel in Germany - Regionalliga - SudWest on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kickers Offenb. a 41% chance, the draw 24% and Hessen Kassel 36%, so Kickers Offenb. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Kickers Offenb. and 1.7 for Hessen Kassel (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kickers Offenb. are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.50 for Hessen Kassel. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +1.7%. This match finished 1-3.

Kickers Offenb. vs Hessen Kassel Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - SudWest

Match Preview & Prediction

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