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S. Kickers vs Grossaspach Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - SudWest

Südwest - 34 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 12:00

S. Kickers

PPG 2.00 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Grossaspach

PPG 2.19 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 61.4% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-16.9%0-26.6%0-34.3%0-4+3.2%1 1-05.0%1-19.6%1-29.3%1-36.0%1-4+4.5%2 2-03.5%2-16.8%2-26.6%2-34.2%2-4+3.2%3 3-01.6%3-13.2%3-23.1%3-32.0%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.5%4+-21.5%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.7% 32.3% 3.10 -4.8%

Draw 24.9% 26.0% 3.85 -2.5%

Away win 45.4% 51.3% 1.95 -11.5%

Over 2.5 61.4% 69.0% 1.45 -11.0%

Over 3.5 42.8% 45.5% 2.20 -5.8%

BTTS 59.7% 70.4% 1.42 -15.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 32%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 23%

ROI -13.7%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob59.7%

A 45% / xG 1.4-1.9 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.6%

#2 1–2 9.3%

#3 2–1 6.8%

#4 0–2 6.6%

#5 2–2 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

S. Kickers1.4

Grossaspach1.9

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.4% · O3.5 PROB 42.8%

Form & verdict PPG

S. KICKERS · PPG 2.00

GROSSASPACH · PPG 2.19

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.00), Away EXCELLENT (2.19)

Win probability 1X2

S. Kickers (H) 29.7%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -4.8%

Draw 24.9%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -2.5%

Grossaspach (A) 45.4%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -11.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

S. Kickers face Grossaspach in Germany - Regionalliga - SudWest on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives S. Kickers a 30% chance, the draw 25% and Grossaspach 45%, so Grossaspach are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for S. Kickers and 1.9 for Grossaspach (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, S. Kickers are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 2.19 for Grossaspach. This match finished 2-0.

S. Kickers vs Grossaspach Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - SudWest

Match Preview & Prediction

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