Veikkausliiga

FINLAND · 84 MATCHES TRACKED · 16 MAY 2026 – 31 AUG 2026

▲ STRONG-EDGE LEAGUE

MODEL EDGE ABOVE BREAK-EVEN IN THIS LEAGUE

// Model accuracy

How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 84 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.

50.0%

1X2

42/84

42.9%

O/U 2.5

36/84

42.9%

BTTS

36/84

46.4%

Exact score

39/84

// Published picks

Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.

Settled

66.7%

Hit rate

10/15

1.77

Avg odds

+13.4%

ROI

+2.0u

Picks by market

FLAT 1U · BREAK-EVEN AT IMPLIED % MARKED ▎· SMALL SAMPLES — READ WITH CARE

HOME WIN · N=7 71.4% HIT · AVG 1.94 · +34.7% ROI

OVER 2.5 · N=6 50.0% HIT · AVG 1.73 · -17.2% ROI

HOME O1.5 · N=2 100.0% HIT · AVG 1.30 · +30.5% ROI

Picks by verdict tier

VERDICTS NORMALIZED INTO CONFIDENCE TIERS · LOW-CONFIDENCE FLAG OVERRIDES

🎯 Strong bet

Bets

75%

Hit

+29.0%

ROI

✓ Solid

Bets

75%

Hit

+5.5%

ROI

✓ Fair / Caution

Bets

25%

Hit

-59.5%

ROI

⚠ Low confidence

Bets

100%

Hit

+100.3%

ROI

Match log

84 RESOLVED · GROUPED BY MONTH · — MEANS NO PICK PUBLISHED

DateMatchPickEVFTResult

August 2026 // 11 PICKS · 5 HIT · 6 MISS

31 AUG Inter Turku vs KuPS — NO PICK 1–0 —31 AUG Mariehamn vs FF Jaro BTTS -18% 2–0 MISS 31 AUG VPS vs Lahti — NO PICK 0–1 —31 AUG AC Oulu vs SJK Home +5% 0–0 MISS 31 AUG Gnistan vs Turku PS Over 2.5 -8% 1–1 MISS 31 AUG Ilves vs HJK Helsinki BTTS -9% 1–2 HIT 23 AUG KuPS vs Mariehamn HO1.5 2–4 HIT 23 AUG HJK Helsinki vs Gnistan BTTS -16% 2–3 HIT 23 AUG Turku PS vs Inter Turku BTTS -14% 0–0 MISS 22 AUG FF Jaro vs AC Oulu BTTS -15% 0–1 MISS 22 AUG Ilves vs VPS BTTS -19% 0–1 MISS 21 AUG SJK vs Lahti — NO PICK 1–2 —17 AUG Gnistan vs Ilves Over 2.5 -2% 3–2 HIT 16 AUG HJK Helsinki vs FF Jaro Home -13% 3–0 HIT 16 AUG AC Oulu vs Inter Turku — NO PICK 2–3 —