Veikkausliiga

FINLAND · 48 MATCHES TRACKED · 16 MAY 2026 – 20 JUL 2026

▼ THIN-EDGE LEAGUE

SHARP MARKET — MODEL EDGE BELOW BREAK-EVEN HERE

// Model accuracy

How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 46 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.

58.7%

1X2

27/46

39.1%

O/U 2.5

18/46

34.8%

BTTS

16/46

41.3%

Exact score

19/46

// Published picks

Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.

Settled

58.1%

Hit rate

18/31

1.62

Avg odds

-8.9%

ROI

-2.8u

Picks by market

FLAT 1U · BREAK-EVEN AT IMPLIED % MARKED ▎· SMALL SAMPLES — READ WITH CARE

HOME WIN · N=12 75.0% HIT · AVG 1.65 · +19.8% ROI

BTTS · N=10 30.0% HIT · AVG 1.60 · -52.2% ROI

OVER 2.5 · N=7 57.1% HIT · AVG 1.67 · -7.9% ROI

AWAY WIN · N=2 100.0% HIT · AVG 1.31 · +31.0% ROI

Picks by verdict tier

VERDICTS NORMALIZED INTO CONFIDENCE TIERS · LOW-CONFIDENCE FLAG OVERRIDES

🎯 Strong bet

Bets

67%

Hit

+18.3%

ROI

✓ Solid

Bets

40%

Hit

-49.0%

ROI

✓ Fair / Caution

Bets

40%

Hit

-38.0%

ROI

⚠ Low confidence

Bets

67%

Hit

+5.7%

ROI

Match log

46 RESOLVED · GROUPED BY MONTH · — MEANS NO PICK PUBLISHED

DateMatchPickEVFTResult

July 2026 // 10 PICKS · 5 HIT · 5 MISS

19 JUL Jaro vs Inter Turku BTTS -4% 0–0 MISS 18 JUL HJK Helsinki vs VPS BTTS -22% 2–1 HIT 18 JUL SJK vs KuPS Over 2.5 -6% 0–2 MISS 18 JUL Oulu vs Gnistan BTTS -13% 0–2 MISS 11 JUL Lahti vs HJK Helsinki BTTS -17% 2–0 MISS 11 JUL Gnistan vs Mariehamn Home -8% 4–2 HIT 11 JUL TPS vs Oulu BTTS 3–0 MISS 10 JUL VPS vs SJK Home +23% 1–0 HIT 4 JUL Lahti vs Gnistan — NO PICK 1–0 —4 JUL Jaro vs Ilves Over 2.5 +9% 2–1 HIT 4 JUL VPS vs Mariehamn Home -14% 4–0 HIT

June 2026 // 4 PICKS · 3 HIT · 1 MISS

27 JUN Ilves vs SJK Over 2.5 -4% 2–2 HIT 27 JUN Mariehamn vs Inter Turku Away -15% 0–2 HIT 27 JUN HJK Helsinki vs KuPS BTTS -14% 0–4 MISS 27 JUN Gnistan vs VPS BTTS -14% 1–1 HIT