Today / Finland - Veikkausliiga / VPS vs Lahti
VPS vs Lahti Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga
VPS
PPG 1.80 · HOME
Lahti
PPG 1.10 · AWAY
Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →
0 1 2 3 4+ 0 0-012.9% 0-110.0% 0-23.9% 0-31.0% 0-4+0.2% 1 1-016.4% 1-112.7% 1-24.9% 1-31.3% 1-4+0.3% 2 2-010.4% 2-18.1% 2-23.1% 2-30.8% 2-4+0.2% 3 3-04.4% 3-13.4% 3-21.3% 3-30.3% 3-4+0.1% 4+ 4+-01.9% 4+-11.4% 4+-20.6% 4+-30.1% 4+-4+0.0%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW ▣ FT RESULT
Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV
Market Model Implied Odds EV
Home win 47.0% 49.0% 2.04 -4.1%
Draw 28.2% 28.6% 3.50 -0.8%
Away win 24.8% 31.3% 3.20 -12.4%
Over 2.5 43.4% 57.8% 1.73 -24.9%
Over 3.5 23.1% 36.4% 2.75 -21.9%
BTTS 48.0% 63.7% 1.57 -24.6%
Home O1.5 38.4% 52.6% 1.90 -27.0%
Away O1.5 21.9% 39.2% 2.55 -26.5%
League track record ↗
Based on 84 resolved predictions
1X2 Acc 50%
O2.5 43%
BTTS 43%
Score Hit 46%
ROI 13.4%
Bet Hit 67%
Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL
2 – 0 34% CONFIDENCE
✘ MISS — FT 0-1 xG (home) 1.3 xG (away) 0.8 BTTS prob 48.0%
H 47% / xG 1.3-0.8 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%
Top 5 Poisson scorelines
#1 1–0 16.4%
#2 0–0 12.9%
#3 1–1 12.7%
#4 2–0 10.4%
#5 0–1✓ 10.0%
Form & verdict PPG
⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v... HIGH_DRAW_RISK xG gap +0.49, combined xG 2.04 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk
Season statistics shots · possession · passes · corners · cards · xG + Season Statistics average per match · 10 matches · 2026 VPS ▾ lower is better Lahti
Attack
1.8 Shots outside box
4.0 43.1% Shooting accuracy
33.3% 48.4% Goals per shot on target
24.4% 1.38 xG for 6·6 of 10
1.25 Defence
3.1 Shots on target faced▾
3.0 0.90 Goals conceded▾
0.90 1.06 xG against▾ 6·6 of 10
1.41 Control
78.3% Pass accuracy
80.0% Discipline
Match Preview & Prediction VPS face Lahti in Finland - Veikkausliiga on Monday, August 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives VPS a 47% chance, the draw 28% and Lahti 25%, so VPS are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for VPS and 0.8 for Lahti (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, VPS are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 1.10 for Lahti. This match finished 0-1.
Matchday 22 ·Monday, August 31, 2026, 16:00
