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Mariehamn vs FF Jaro Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Matchday 22 ·Monday, August 31, 2026, 16:00

Mariehamn

PPG 0.70 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWWW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

FF Jaro

PPG 0.20 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLLL 

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.1%0-18.3%0-24.2%0-31.4%0-4+0.5%1 1-012.1%1-112.4%1-26.3%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.0%2-19.2%2-24.7%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.5%3-14.6%3-22.3%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-12.4%4+-21.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.0% 45.0% 2.22 +13.2%

Draw 24.3% 29.0% 3.45 -9.7%

Away win 24.7% 34.7% 2.88 -17.3%

Over 2.5 53.1% 58.8% 1.70 -9.7%

Over 3.5 31.6% 36.4% 2.75 -13.1%

BTTS 52.9% 64.5% 1.55 -18.0%

Home O1.5 39.9% 50.0% 2.00 -20.2%

Away O1.5 31.8% 42.6% 2.35 -25.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 84 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 43%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 13.4%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.9%

H 51% / xG 1.5-1.0 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 1–0 12.1%

#3 2–1 9.2%

#4 2–0✓ 9.0%

#5 0–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mariehamn1.5

FF Jaro1.0

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.1% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

MARIEHAMN · PPG 0.70

FF JARO · PPG 0.20

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.47 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Mariehamn (H) 51.0%

ODDS 2.22 · IMPLIED 45.0% EV +13.2%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -9.7%

FF Jaro (A) 24.7%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -17.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mariehamn face FF Jaro in Finland - Veikkausliiga on Monday, August 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mariehamn a 51% chance, the draw 24% and FF Jaro 25%, so Mariehamn are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Mariehamn and 1.0 for FF Jaro (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mariehamn are averaging 0.70 points per game versus 0.20 for FF Jaro. This match finished 2-0.

Mariehamn vs FF Jaro Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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