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KuPS vs Mariehamn Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Matchday 21 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 12:00

KuPS

PPG 2.20 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWLL

2 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Mariehamn

PPG 0.10 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWWW

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 78.4% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-11.3%0-20.3%0-30.0%0-4+0.0%1 1-09.1%1-14.0%1-20.9%1-30.1%1-4+0.0%2 2-014.1%2-16.2%2-21.3%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-014.4%3-16.3%3-21.4%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-023.9%4+-110.5%4+-22.3%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 76.6% 82.0% 1.22 -6.6%

Draw 15.8% 17.2% 5.80 -5.0%

Away win 7.6% 10.0% 10.00 -14.4%

Over 2.5 63.1% 71.4% 1.40 -11.7%

Over 3.5 39.4% 50.0% 2.00 -21.2%

BTTS 43.6% 55.6% 1.80 -21.5%

Home O1.5 78.4% 78.1% 1.28 +0.4%

Away O1.5 12.2% 23.1% 4.33 -28.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 84 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 43%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 13.4%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 68%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-4

xG (home)3.1 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob43.6%

H 77% / xG 3.1-0.4 / O2.5 63% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 14.4%

#2 2–0 14.1%

#3 4–0 11.1%

#4 1–1 4.0%

#5 1–0 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

KuPS3.1

Mariehamn0.4

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 39.4%

Form & verdict PPG

KUPS · PPG 2.20

MARIEHAMN · PPG 0.10

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.64 for Home, form 2.20 vs 0.10 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

KuPS (H) 76.6%

ODDS 1.22 · IMPLIED 82.0% EV -6.6%

Draw 15.8%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV -5.0%

Mariehamn (A) 7.6%

ODDS 10.00 · IMPLIED 10.0% EV -14.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

KuPS face Mariehamn in Finland - Veikkausliiga on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives KuPS a 77% chance, the draw 16% and Mariehamn 8%, so KuPS are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.1 for KuPS and 0.4 for Mariehamn (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, KuPS are averaging 2.20 points per game versus 0.10 for Mariehamn. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +0.4%. This match finished 2-4.

KuPS vs Mariehamn Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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