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Gnistan vs Ilves Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Matchday 20 ·Monday, August 17, 2026, 15:00

Gnistan

PPG 1.78 · HOME

UPCOMING

Ilves

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.3% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.2%0-12.8%0-21.8%0-30.8%0-4+0.3%1 1-05.6%1-17.2%1-24.6%1-32.0%1-4+0.8%2 2-07.0%2-19.1%2-25.8%2-32.5%2-4+1.1%3 3-05.9%3-17.6%3-24.9%3-32.1%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-06.9%4+-18.8%4+-25.7%4+-32.4%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.3% 43.5% 2.30 +27.2%

Draw 21.8% 29.0% 3.45 -14.9%

Away win 23.0% 36.2% 2.76 -21.9%

Over 2.5 67.3% 65.4% 1.53 +3.0%

Over 3.5 43.0% 43.5% 2.30 -1.1%

BTTS 62.2% 70.4% 1.42 -11.7%

Home O1.5 63.4% 54.1% 1.85 +17.3%

Away O1.5 36.6% 48.8% 2.05 -25.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 68 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 41%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 21.0%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 65%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob62.2%

H 55% / xG 2.5-1.3 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.1%

#2 1–1 7.2%

#3 3–1 7.6%

#4 2–0 7.0%

#5 3–0 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gnistan2.5

Ilves1.3

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.3% · O3.5 PROB 43.0%

Form & verdict PPG

GNISTAN · PPG 1.78

ILVES · PPG 0.60

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.24 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Gnistan (H) 55.3%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +27.2%

Draw 21.8%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -14.9%

Ilves (A) 23.0%

ODDS 2.76 · IMPLIED 36.2% EV -21.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gnistan face Ilves in Finland - Veikkausliiga on Monday, August 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gnistan a 55% chance, the draw 22% and Ilves 23%, so Gnistan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Gnistan and 1.3 for Ilves (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gnistan are averaging 1.78 points per game versus 0.60 for Ilves. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +50.3%.

Gnistan vs Ilves Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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