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HJK Helsinki vs FF Jaro Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Matchday 20 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 13:00

HJK Helsinki

PPG 1.89 · HOME

UPCOMING

FF Jaro

PPG 0.22 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 68.9% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-12.1%0-20.8%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-08.3%1-16.0%1-22.2%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-011.6%2-18.4%2-23.0%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-010.8%3-17.8%3-22.8%3-30.7%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-015.0%4+-110.8%4+-23.9%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 68.9% 78.1% 1.28 -11.8%

Draw 16.7% 19.6% 5.10 -8.9%

Away win 14.4% 10.9% 9.20 +19.5%

Over 2.5 64.6% 69.4% 1.44 -7.0%

Over 3.5 42.6% 47.6% 2.10 -10.5%

BTTS 53.1% 58.8% 1.70 -9.7%

Home O1.5 66.4% 76.9% 1.30 -13.7%

Away O1.5 17.2% 25.0% 4.00 -18.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 67 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 40%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 45%

ROI 21.0%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 61%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob53.1%

H 69% / xG 2.8-0.7 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.6%

#2 3–0 10.8%

#3 2–1 8.4%

#4 3–1 7.8%

#5 4–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

HJK Helsinki2.8

FF Jaro0.7

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.6% · O3.5 PROB 42.6%

Form & verdict PPG

HJK HELSINKI · PPG 1.89

FF JARO · PPG 0.22

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.08 for Home, form 1.89 vs 0.22 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

HJK Helsinki (H) 68.9%

ODDS 1.28 · IMPLIED 78.1% EV -11.8%

Draw 16.7%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV -8.9%

FF Jaro (A) 14.4%

ODDS 9.20 · IMPLIED 10.9% EV +19.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

HJK Helsinki face FF Jaro in Finland - Veikkausliiga on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives HJK Helsinki a 69% chance, the draw 17% and FF Jaro 14%, so HJK Helsinki are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for HJK Helsinki and 0.7 for FF Jaro (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, HJK Helsinki are averaging 1.89 points per game versus 0.22 for FF Jaro. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +2.6%.

HJK Helsinki vs FF Jaro Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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