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Gnistan vs Turku PS Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Matchday 22 ·Monday, August 31, 2026, 16:00

Gnistan

PPG 1.90 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWWD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Turku PS

PPG 0.70 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWDD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.8 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.6% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.0%0-16.4%0-23.5%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-010.4%1-111.2%1-26.0%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.1%2-19.7%2-25.2%2-31.9%2-4+0.6%3 3-05.3%3-15.7%3-23.0%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.4%4+-13.6%4+-22.0%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.6% 53.2% 1.88 -6.8%

Draw 23.6% 26.7% 3.75 -6.9%

Away win 26.8% 29.0% 3.45 -4.5%

Over 2.5 59.6% 64.5% 1.55 -7.6%

Over 3.5 36.3% 42.0% 2.38 -13.6%

BTTS 55.9% 67.6% 1.48 -17.3%

Home O1.5 49.9% 58.8% 1.70 -15.2%

Away O1.5 32.7% 41.7% 2.40 -21.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 84 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 43%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 13.4%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.9%

H 50% / xG 1.7-1.1 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 11.2%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 9.1%

#4 1–0 10.4%

#5 1–2 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gnistan1.7

Turku PS1.1

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.3%

Form & verdict PPG

GNISTAN · PPG 1.90

TURKU PS · PPG 0.70

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.67 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Gnistan (H) 49.6%

ODDS 1.88 · IMPLIED 53.2% EV -6.8%

Draw 23.6%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -6.9%

Turku PS (A) 26.8%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -4.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gnistan face Turku PS in Finland - Veikkausliiga on Monday, August 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gnistan a 50% chance, the draw 24% and Turku PS 27%, so Gnistan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Gnistan and 1.1 for Turku PS (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gnistan are averaging 1.90 points per game versus 0.70 for Turku PS. This match finished 1-1.

Gnistan vs Turku PS Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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