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AC Oulu vs SJK Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Matchday 22 ·Monday, August 31, 2026, 16:00

AC Oulu

PPG 1.90 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLWD

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

SJK

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLLD

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 50.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.7%0-16.6%0-22.8%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-013.2%1-111.2%1-24.8%1-31.4%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.3%2-19.6%2-24.1%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-06.4%3-15.5%3-22.3%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-04.0%4+-13.4%4+-21.5%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.0% 50.5% 1.98 +4.9%

Draw 24.3% 28.2% 3.55 -8.2%

Away win 22.7% 30.3% 3.30 -15.0%

Over 2.5 52.9% 60.6% 1.65 -12.7%

Over 3.5 31.6% 38.5% 2.60 -17.8%

BTTS 52.9% 65.4% 1.53 -19.1%

Home O1.5 49.9% 55.6% 1.80 -10.2%

Away O1.5 24.4% 40.8% 2.45 -24.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 84 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 43%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 13.4%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.9%

H 53% / xG 1.7-0.9 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 1–0 13.2%

#3 2–0 11.3%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 0–0✓ 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

AC Oulu1.7

SJK0.9

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

AC OULU · PPG 1.90

SJK · PPG 0.60

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.86 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

AC Oulu (H) 53.0%

ODDS 1.98 · IMPLIED 50.5% EV +4.9%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -8.2%

SJK (A) 22.7%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -15.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

AC Oulu face SJK in Finland - Veikkausliiga on Monday, August 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives AC Oulu a 53% chance, the draw 24% and SJK 23%, so AC Oulu are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for AC Oulu and 0.9 for SJK (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, AC Oulu are averaging 1.90 points per game versus 0.60 for SJK. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +6.8%. This match finished 0-0.

AC Oulu vs SJK Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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