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Ilves vs VPS Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Matchday 21 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 14:00

Ilves

PPG 2.11 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLLL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

VPS

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLWL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-17.2%0-24.1%0-31.6%0-4+0.6%1 1-010.1%1-111.7%1-26.7%1-32.6%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.2%2-19.5%2-25.5%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.4%3-15.1%3-22.9%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-13.0%4+-21.7%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.9% 45.5% 2.20 +3.2%

Draw 24.3% 28.6% 3.50 -9.0%

Away win 28.8% 35.2% 2.84 -10.9%

Over 2.5 53.9% 62.5% 1.60 -13.8%

Over 3.5 31.6% 40.0% 2.50 -21.0%

BTTS 54.7% 67.6% 1.48 -19.0%

Home O1.5 47.4% 52.6% 1.90 -9.9%

Away O1.5 35.6% 45.5% 2.20 -21.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 84 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 43%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 13.4%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.7%

H 47% / xG 1.6-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–0 10.1%

#4 2–0 8.2%

#5 1–2 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ilves1.6

VPS1.2

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ILVES · PPG 2.11

VPS · PPG 1.20

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.47 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Ilves (H) 46.9%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +3.2%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -9.0%

VPS (A) 28.8%

ODDS 2.84 · IMPLIED 35.2% EV -10.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ilves face VPS in Finland - Veikkausliiga on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ilves a 47% chance, the draw 24% and VPS 29%, so Ilves are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Ilves and 1.2 for VPS (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ilves are averaging 2.11 points per game versus 1.20 for VPS. This match finished 0-1.

Ilves vs VPS Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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