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Ilves vs HJK Helsinki Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Matchday 22 ·Monday, August 31, 2026, 16:00

Ilves

PPG 1.90 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLLL

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

HJK Helsinki

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWLW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.5% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-16.1%0-24.5%0-32.2%0-4+1.1%1 1-07.2%1-110.5%1-27.6%1-33.7%1-4+1.8%2 2-06.2%2-19.0%2-26.5%2-33.2%2-4+1.6%3 3-03.5%3-15.1%3-23.7%3-31.8%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-13.2%4+-22.3%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.5% 29.0% 3.45 +46.6%

Draw 23.1% 27.0% 3.70 -8.7%

Away win 34.4% 53.2% 1.88 -35.3%

Over 2.5 60.8% 65.4% 1.53 -7.0%

Over 3.5 37.6% 42.6% 2.35 -11.6%

BTTS 61.5% 67.6% 1.48 -9.0%

Home O1.5 49.9% 41.7% 2.40 +19.8%

Away O1.5 42.2% 58.8% 1.70 -28.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 84 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 43%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 13.4%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob61.5%

H 42% / xG 1.7-1.5 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 2–1 9.0%

#3 1–2✓ 7.6%

#4 2–0 6.2%

#5 1–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ilves1.7

HJK Helsinki1.5

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.8% · O3.5 PROB 37.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ILVES · PPG 1.90

HJK HELSINKI · PPG 1.40

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.26 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Ilves (H) 42.5%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV +46.6%

Draw 23.1%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -8.7%

HJK Helsinki (A) 34.4%

ODDS 1.88 · IMPLIED 53.2% EV -35.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ilves face HJK Helsinki in Finland - Veikkausliiga on Monday, August 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ilves a 43% chance, the draw 23% and HJK Helsinki 34%, so Ilves are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Ilves and 1.5 for HJK Helsinki (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ilves are averaging 1.90 points per game versus 1.40 for HJK Helsinki. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +53.7%. This match finished 1-2.

Ilves vs HJK Helsinki Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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