Today / Finland - Veikkausliiga / SJK vs Lahti
SJK vs Lahti Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga
SJK
PPG 1.20 · HOME
Lahti
PPG 0.89 · AWAY
Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →
0 1 2 3 4+ 0 0-012.4% 0-111.8% 0-25.7% 0-31.8% 0-4+0.5% 1 1-014.1% 1-113.4% 1-26.4% 1-32.0% 1-4+0.6% 2 2-08.0% 2-17.6% 2-23.6% 2-31.2% 2-4+0.3% 3 3-03.0% 3-12.9% 3-21.4% 3-30.4% 3-4+0.1% 4+ 4+-01.1% 4+-11.0% 4+-20.5% 4+-30.2% 4+-4+0.0%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW ▣ FT RESULT
Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV
Market Model Implied Odds EV
Home win 40.5% 41.3% 2.42 -2.0%
Draw 29.2% 29.0% 3.45 +0.4%
Away win 30.3% 38.8% 2.58 -21.8%
Over 2.5 44.1% 58.8% 1.70 -25.0%
Over 3.5 23.6% 37.0% 2.70 -21.8%
BTTS 49.1% 65.4% 1.53 -24.9%
Home O1.5 30.6% 47.6% 2.10 -35.7%
Away O1.5 25.7% 46.5% 2.15 -26.9%
League track record ↗
Based on 84 resolved predictions
1X2 Acc 50%
O2.5 43%
BTTS 43%
Score Hit 46%
ROI 13.4%
Bet Hit 67%
Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL
2 – 0 27% CONFIDENCE
✘ MISS — FT 1-2 xG (home) 1.1 xG (away) 1.0 BTTS prob 49.1%
H 40% / xG 1.1-1.0 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 49%
Top 5 Poisson scorelines
#1 1–1 13.4%
#2 1–0 14.1%
#3 0–0 12.4%
#4 0–1 11.8%
#5 2–0 8.0%
Form & verdict PPG
⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value HIGH_DRAW_RISK xG gap +0.18, combined xG 2.09 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk
Season statistics shots · possession · passes · corners · cards · xG + Season Statistics average per match · 7 matches · 2026 SJK ▾ lower is better Lahti
Attack
3.4 Shots outside box
4.0 40.8% Shooting accuracy
33.3% 29.0% Goals per shot on target
24.4% 2.02 xG for 4·6 of 7
1.25 Defence
4.6 Shots on target faced▾
3.0 2.14 Goals conceded▾
0.90 2.30 xG against▾ 4·6 of 7
1.41 Control
82.4% Pass accuracy
80.0% Discipline
Match Preview & Prediction SJK face Lahti in Finland - Veikkausliiga on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives SJK a 41% chance, the draw 29% and Lahti 30%, so SJK are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for SJK and 1.0 for Lahti (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, SJK are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 0.89 for Lahti. This match finished 1-2.
Matchday 21 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 16:00
