Leagues / ESTONIA / Meistriliiga
Meistriliiga
▼ THIN-EDGE LEAGUE
SHARP MARKET — MODEL EDGE BELOW BREAK-EVEN HERE
// Model accuracy
How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 42 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.
57.1%
1X2
24/42
64.3%
O/U 2.5
27/42
57.1%
BTTS
24/42
35.7%
Exact score
15/42
// Published picks
Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.
35
Settled
57.1%
Hit rate
20/35
1.54
Avg odds
-14.4%
ROI
-5.0u
Picks by market
OVER 2.5 · N=15 86.7% HIT · AVG 1.57 · +34.7% ROI
BTTS · N=6 33.3% HIT · AVG 1.57 · -50.2% ROI
AWAY WIN · N=5 40.0% HIT · AVG 1.43 · -47.8% ROI
HOME O1.5 · N=4 25.0% HIT · AVG 1.52 · -59.5% ROI
HOME WIN · N=3 33.3% HIT · AVG 1.72 · -54.7% ROI
AWAY O1.5 · N=2 50.0% HIT · AVG 1.21 · -41.5% ROI
Picks by verdict tier
🎯 Strong bet
2
Bets
50%
Hit
-32.0%
ROI
✓ Solid
6
Bets
33%
Hit
-59.2%
ROI
✓ Fair / Caution
8
Bets
75%
Hit
+20.6%
ROI
⚠ Low confidence
19
Bets
58%
Hit
-13.2%
ROI
Match log
DateMatchPickEVFTResult
July 2026 // 7 PICKS · 4 HIT · 3 MISS
19 JUL Kuressaare vs Nomme Kalju Away -9% 0–0 MISS18 JUL Narva Trans vs Vaprus Over 2.5 +5% 3–1 HIT17 JUL Flora vs Nomme Utd HO1.5 1–2 MISS11 JUL Vaprus vs Tammeka BTTS -18% 5–1 HIT11 JUL Nomme Utd vs Kuressaare Over 2.5 +3% 3–2 HIT4 JUL Paide vs Vaprus HO1.5 3–1 HIT2 JUL Kuressaare vs Flora BTTS -5% 0–3 MISSJune 2026 // 8 PICKS · 4 HIT · 4 MISS
28 JUN Levadia vs Flora Over 2.5 +1% 1–2 HIT26 JUN Vaprus vs Kuressaare BTTS -2% 1–0 MISS21 JUN Flora vs Paide Over 2.5 +10% 1–2 HIT17 JUN Nomme Utd vs Levadia AO1.5 1–2 HIT16 JUN Kuressaare vs Narva Trans Home +46% 0–0 MISS16 JUN Vaprus vs Flora Over 2.5 -1% 1–2 HIT14 JUN Nomme Kalju vs Paide HO1.5 1–1 MISS13 JUN Tammeka vs Vaprus BTTS -5% 0–0 MISS