Today / Estonia - Meistriliiga / Flora Tallinn vs Paide

Flora Tallinn vs Paide Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Matchday 25 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 14:00

Flora Tallinn

PPG 1.64 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWLL

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Paide

PPG 1.42 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWDWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 62.3% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-14.7%0-22.9%0-31.2%0-4+0.5%1 1-08.0%1-19.6%1-25.8%1-32.3%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.1%2-19.8%2-25.9%2-32.4%2-4+0.9%3 3-05.5%3-16.6%3-24.0%3-31.6%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-04.4%4+-15.3%4+-23.2%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.9% 38.2% 2.62 +30.7%

Draw 21.6% 28.6% 3.50 -14.6%

Away win 28.5% 44.4% 2.25 -21.5%

Over 2.5 62.3% 65.4% 1.53 -4.7%

Over 3.5 39.3% 44.4% 2.25 -11.6%

BTTS 60.8% 69.4% 1.44 -12.4%

Home O1.5 56.9% 52.4% 1.91 +8.7%

Away O1.5 36.4% 52.4% 1.91 -30.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 39%

ROI 9.7%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob60.8%

H 50% / xG 2.0-1.2 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.6%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 1–2✓ 5.8%

#4 2–0 8.1%

#5 3–1 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Flora Tallinn2.0

Paide1.2

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.3% · O3.5 PROB 39.3%

Form & verdict PPG

FLORA TALLINN · PPG 1.64

PAIDE · PPG 1.42

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.82 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Flora Tallinn (H) 49.9%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV +30.7%

Draw 21.6%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -14.6%

Paide (A) 28.5%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -21.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Flora Tallinn face Paide in Estonia - Meistriliiga on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Flora Tallinn a 50% chance, the draw 22% and Paide 28%, so Flora Tallinn are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Flora Tallinn and 1.2 for Paide (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Flora Tallinn are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 1.42 for Paide. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +44.2%. This match finished 1-2.

Flora Tallinn vs Paide Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

More Estonia - Meistriliiga Predictions