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Trans Narva vs Paide Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Matchday 23 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 14:00

Trans Narva

PPG 1.09 · HOME

UPCOMING

Paide

PPG 1.45 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.3% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-19.7%0-29.1%0-35.7%0-4+4.1%1 1-05.6%1-110.5%1-29.9%1-36.2%1-4+4.4%2 2-03.1%2-15.7%2-25.4%2-33.3%2-4+2.4%3 3-01.1%3-12.1%3-21.9%3-31.2%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.7%4+-20.7%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.0% 28.6% 3.50 -3.3%

Draw 22.6% 27.8% 3.60 -11.2%

Away win 50.3% 54.6% 1.83 -8.0%

Over 2.5 59.5% 58.8% 1.70 +1.1%

Over 3.5 36.5% 38.2% 2.62 -4.4%

BTTS 60.3% 61.7% 1.62 -2.3%

Home O1.5 30.2% 36.4% 2.75 -17.0%

Away O1.5 53.8% 55.6% 1.80 -3.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 35%

ROI 9.7%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 52%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob60.3%

A 50% / xG 1.1-1.9 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 1–2 9.9%

#3 0–2 9.1%

#4 0–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Trans Narva1.1

Paide1.9

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.5% · O3.5 PROB 36.5%

Form & verdict PPG

TRANS NARVA · PPG 1.09

PAIDE · PPG 1.45

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.79 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Trans Narva (H) 27.0%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -3.3%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -11.2%

Paide (A) 50.3%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV -8.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Trans Narva face Paide in Estonia - Meistriliiga on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Trans Narva a 27% chance, the draw 23% and Paide 50%, so Paide are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Trans Narva and 1.9 for Paide (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Trans Narva are averaging 1.09 points per game versus 1.45 for Paide. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +5.5%.

Trans Narva vs Paide Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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