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Trans Narva vs Tammeka Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Matchday 25 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 16:00

Trans Narva

PPG 1.08 · HOME

LAST 5

WLDLL

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Tammeka

PPG 1.30 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWWW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-110.6%0-27.7%0-33.7%0-4+1.9%1 1-08.5%1-112.4%1-29.0%1-34.3%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.0%2-17.2%2-25.2%2-32.5%2-4+1.3%3 3-01.9%3-12.8%3-22.0%3-31.0%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.0%4+-20.8%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.8% 38.2% 2.62 -13.2%

Draw 24.2% 30.8% 3.25 -12.8%

Away win 46.0% 43.5% 2.30 +5.8%

Over 2.5 51.3% 59.9% 1.67 -14.3%

Over 3.5 30.6% 38.2% 2.62 -19.8%

BTTS 52.7% 64.5% 1.55 -18.3%

Home O1.5 31.4% 45.5% 2.20 -30.9%

Away O1.5 40.9% 47.6% 2.10 -14.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 39%

ROI 9.7%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob52.7%

A 46% / xG 1.2-1.4 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 1–2 9.0%

#3 0–1 10.6%

#4 0–2✓ 7.7%

#5 2–1 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Trans Narva1.2

Tammeka1.4

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.3% · O3.5 PROB 30.6%

Form & verdict PPG

TRANS NARVA · PPG 1.08

TAMMEKA · PPG 1.30

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.29 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Trans Narva (H) 29.8%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -13.2%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -12.8%

Tammeka (A) 46.0%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +5.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Trans Narva face Tammeka in Estonia - Meistriliiga on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Trans Narva a 30% chance, the draw 24% and Tammeka 46%, so Tammeka are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Trans Narva and 1.4 for Tammeka (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Trans Narva are averaging 1.08 points per game versus 1.30 for Tammeka. This match finished 0-2.

Trans Narva vs Tammeka Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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