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Laagri vs FC Levadia Tallinn Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Matchday 23 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 16:00

Laagri

PPG 1.45 · HOME

UPCOMING

FC Levadia Tallinn

PPG 2.64 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

Model probability 64.9% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.2%0-17.4%0-28.6%0-36.7%0-4+6.7%1 1-03.6%1-18.3%1-29.7%1-37.5%1-4+7.5%2 2-02.0%2-14.7%2-25.4%2-34.2%2-4+4.2%3 3-00.7%3-11.7%3-22.0%3-31.6%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.6%4+-20.7%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.2% 13.3% 7.50 +44.4%

Draw 21.3% 20.0% 5.00 +3.9%

Away win 55.5% 76.9% 1.30 -27.9%

Over 2.5 64.7% 73.5% 1.36 -12.0%

Over 3.5 42.6% 54.6% 1.83 -22.0%

BTTS 61.6% 61.7% 1.62 -0.2%

Home O1.5 30.2% 26.7% 3.75 +13.3%

Away O1.5 64.9% 78.1% 1.28 -16.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 35%

ROI 9.7%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 58%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)2.3 BTTS prob61.6%

A 56% / xG 1.1-2.3 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 9.7%

#2 1–1 8.3%

#3 0–2 8.6%

#4 1–3 7.5%

#5 0–3 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Laagri1.1

FC Levadia Tallinn2.3

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.7% · O3.5 PROB 42.6%

Form & verdict PPG

LAAGRI · PPG 1.45

FC LEVADIA TALLINN · PPG 2.64

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -1.20 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Laagri (H) 23.2%

ODDS 7.50 · IMPLIED 13.3% EV +44.4%

Draw 21.3%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +3.9%

FC Levadia Tallinn (A) 55.5%

ODDS 1.30 · IMPLIED 76.9% EV -27.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Laagri face FC Levadia Tallinn in Estonia - Meistriliiga on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Laagri a 23% chance, the draw 21% and FC Levadia Tallinn 56%, so FC Levadia Tallinn are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Laagri and 2.3 for FC Levadia Tallinn (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Laagri are averaging 1.45 points per game versus 2.64 for FC Levadia Tallinn. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +34.3%.

Laagri vs FC Levadia Tallinn Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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