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Kuressaare vs Vaprus Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Matchday 25 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 14:00

Kuressaare

PPG 1.27 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWLD

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Vaprus

PPG 0.91 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLLD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.0% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-17.5%0-24.3%0-31.7%0-4+0.6%1 1-010.3%1-111.8%1-26.8%1-32.6%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.1%2-19.4%2-25.4%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.3%3-15.0%3-22.9%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-12.8%4+-21.6%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.8% 46.5% 2.15 +0.6%

Draw 24.5% 30.8% 3.25 -12.2%

Away win 28.7% 34.5% 2.90 -10.1%

Over 2.5 53.5% 58.8% 1.70 -9.0%

Over 3.5 33.5% 38.2% 2.62 -12.2%

BTTS 55.0% 62.5% 1.60 -12.0%

Home O1.5 47.5% 52.4% 1.91 -9.3%

Away O1.5 33.0% 42.0% 2.38 -21.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 67 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 39%

ROI 9.7%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.0%

H 47% / xG 1.6-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 1–0 10.3%

#4 2–0 8.1%

#5 1–2 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kuressaare1.6

Vaprus1.2

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 33.5%

Form & verdict PPG

KURESSAARE · PPG 1.27

VAPRUS · PPG 0.91

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.43 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Kuressaare (H) 46.8%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +0.6%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -12.2%

Vaprus (A) 28.7%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -10.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kuressaare face Vaprus in Estonia - Meistriliiga on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kuressaare a 47% chance, the draw 25% and Vaprus 29%, so Kuressaare are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Kuressaare and 1.2 for Vaprus (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kuressaare are averaging 1.27 points per game versus 0.91 for Vaprus. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +0.2%. This match finished 2-2.

Kuressaare vs Vaprus Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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