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Laagri vs Kalju Nomme Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Matchday 24 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 16:00

Laagri

PPG 1.33 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLWW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Kalju Nomme

PPG 2.09 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWLL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.4% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.1%0-111.7%0-29.7%0-35.3%0-4+3.2%1 1-07.1%1-111.6%1-29.6%1-35.3%1-4+3.2%2 2-03.5%2-15.8%2-24.8%2-32.6%2-4+1.6%3 3-01.2%3-11.9%3-21.6%3-30.9%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.6%4+-20.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.6% 23.8% 4.20 -0.5%

Draw 22.6% 24.4% 4.10 -4.4%

Away win 53.8% 61.7% 1.62 -12.8%

Over 2.5 53.9% 67.6% 1.48 -20.2%

Over 3.5 31.6% 45.5% 2.20 -30.5%

BTTS 54.4% 66.7% 1.50 -18.4%

Home O1.5 30.6% 38.2% 2.62 -19.8%

Away O1.5 48.5% 66.7% 1.50 -27.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 39%

ROI 9.7%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob54.4%

A 54% / xG 1.0-1.7 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 0–1 11.7%

#3 0–2 9.7%

#4 1–2 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Laagri1.0

Kalju Nomme1.7

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

LAAGRI · PPG 1.33

KALJU NOMME · PPG 2.09

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -0.66 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Laagri (H) 23.6%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -0.5%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -4.4%

Kalju Nomme (A) 53.8%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -12.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Laagri face Kalju Nomme in Estonia - Meistriliiga on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Laagri a 24% chance, the draw 23% and Kalju Nomme 54%, so Kalju Nomme are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Laagri and 1.7 for Kalju Nomme (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Laagri are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 2.09 for Kalju Nomme. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +12.3%. This match finished 1-0.

Laagri vs Kalju Nomme Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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