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Kalju Nomme vs Vaprus Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Matchday 23 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 14:00

Kalju Nomme

PPG 1.64 · HOME

UPCOMING

Vaprus

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 65.9% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-13.1%0-21.2%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-09.9%1-17.5%1-22.9%1-30.7%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.1%2-19.2%2-23.5%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.9%3-17.5%3-22.9%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-010.9%4+-18.3%4+-23.1%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 65.9% 71.4% 1.40 -7.7%

Draw 19.2% 22.7% 4.40 -9.3%

Away win 15.0% 16.7% 6.00 -6.0%

Over 2.5 63.1% 66.7% 1.50 -5.3%

Over 3.5 38.8% 47.6% 2.10 -18.5%

BTTS 53.1% 59.9% 1.67 -11.3%

Home O1.5 63.1% 71.4% 1.40 -11.7%

Away O1.5 17.2% 28.6% 3.50 -23.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 35%

ROI 9.7%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob53.1%

H 66% / xG 2.5-0.8 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.1%

#2 3–0 9.9%

#3 2–1 9.2%

#4 1–0 9.9%

#5 1–1 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kalju Nomme2.5

Vaprus0.8

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 38.8%

Form & verdict PPG

KALJU NOMME · PPG 1.64

VAPRUS · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.69 for Home, form 1.64 vs 1.00 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Kalju Nomme (H) 65.9%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -7.7%

Draw 19.2%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -9.3%

Vaprus (A) 15.0%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV -6.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kalju Nomme face Vaprus in Estonia - Meistriliiga on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kalju Nomme a 66% chance, the draw 19% and Vaprus 15%, so Kalju Nomme are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Kalju Nomme and 0.8 for Vaprus (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kalju Nomme are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 1.00 for Vaprus.

Kalju Nomme vs Vaprus Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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