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Tammeka vs Flora Tallinn Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Matchday 13 ·Wednesday, August 26, 2026, 16:00

Tammeka

PPG 1.73 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWWW

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Flora Tallinn

PPG 2.18 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWLL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.0% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-110.1%0-28.0%0-34.2%0-4+2.4%1 1-07.4%1-111.8%1-29.4%1-35.0%1-4+2.8%2 2-04.3%2-16.9%2-25.5%2-32.9%2-4+1.6%3 3-01.7%3-12.7%3-22.1%3-31.1%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.0%4+-20.8%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.6% 26.3% 3.80 +16.3%

Draw 24.6% 27.8% 3.60 -6.9%

Away win 44.9% 57.8% 1.73 -22.3%

Over 2.5 53.5% 66.7% 1.50 -19.8%

Over 3.5 31.6% 47.6% 2.10 -33.6%

BTTS 55.0% 69.4% 1.44 -20.8%

Home O1.5 31.5% 40.0% 2.50 -21.3%

Away O1.5 47.9% 63.7% 1.57 -24.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 39%

ROI 9.7%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob55.0%

A 45% / xG 1.2-1.6 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 1–2 9.4%

#3 0–1 10.1%

#4 2–1 6.9%

#5 0–2 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tammeka1.2

Flora Tallinn1.6

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

TAMMEKA · PPG 1.73

FLORA TALLINN · PPG 2.18

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.42 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Tammeka (H) 30.6%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +16.3%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -6.9%

Flora Tallinn (A) 44.9%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -22.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tammeka face Flora Tallinn in Estonia - Meistriliiga on Wednesday, August 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tammeka a 31% chance, the draw 25% and Flora Tallinn 45%, so Flora Tallinn are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Tammeka and 1.6 for Flora Tallinn (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tammeka are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 2.18 for Flora Tallinn. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +14.9%. This match finished 3-1.

Tammeka vs Flora Tallinn Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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