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FC Levadia Tallinn vs Trans Narva Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Matchday 24 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 16:00

FC Levadia Tallinn

PPG 2.10 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWWW

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Trans Narva

PPG 0.36 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLDLL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 78.4% vs bookmaker-implied 84.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.0%0-10.5%0-20.1%0-30.0%0-4+0.0%1 1-04.0%1-11.9%1-20.5%1-30.1%1-4+0.0%2 2-08.3%2-14.0%2-21.0%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-011.5%3-15.6%3-21.3%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-036.9%4+-117.8%4+-24.3%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 77.5% 87.0% 1.15 -10.9%

Draw 15.1% 15.4% 6.50 -1.1%

Away win 7.4% 7.7% 13.00 -2.3%

Over 2.5 71.8% 75.2% 1.33 -4.5%

Over 3.5 51.2% 54.1% 1.85 -5.3%

BTTS 47.6% 52.6% 1.90 -9.6%

Home O1.5 78.4% 84.7% 1.18 -7.5%

Away O1.5 16.4% 20.0% 5.00 -10.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 39%

ROI 9.7%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 71%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)4.2 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob47.6%

H 78% / xG 4.2-0.5 / O2.5 72% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 4–0✓ 12.0%

#2 3–0 11.5%

#3 5–0 10.0%

#4 1–1 1.9%

#5 2–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Levadia Tallinn4.2

Trans Narva0.5

COMBINED 4.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 71.8% · O3.5 PROB 51.2%

Form & verdict PPG

FC LEVADIA TALLINN · PPG 2.10

TRANS NARVA · PPG 0.36

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +3.68 for Home, form 2.10 vs 0.36 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

FC Levadia Tallinn (H) 77.5%

ODDS 1.15 · IMPLIED 87.0% EV -10.9%

Draw 15.1%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV -1.1%

Trans Narva (A) 7.4%

ODDS 13.00 · IMPLIED 7.7% EV -2.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Levadia Tallinn face Trans Narva in Estonia - Meistriliiga on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Levadia Tallinn a 78% chance, the draw 15% and Trans Narva 7%, so FC Levadia Tallinn are favoured to win. Expected goals are 4.2 for FC Levadia Tallinn and 0.5 for Trans Narva (4.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 4-0. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Levadia Tallinn are averaging 2.10 points per game versus 0.36 for Trans Narva. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +6.2%. This match finished 4-0.

FC Levadia Tallinn vs Trans Narva Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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