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Vaprus vs Flora Tallinn Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Matchday 24 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 16:00

Vaprus

PPG 1.55 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLLD

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Flora Tallinn

PPG 2.10 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.8% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-18.4%0-27.5%0-34.5%0-4+3.0%1 1-05.9%1-110.7%1-29.5%1-35.7%1-4+3.8%2 2-03.8%2-16.8%2-26.1%2-33.6%2-4+2.4%3 3-01.6%3-12.9%3-22.6%3-31.5%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.2%4+-21.1%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.7% 22.7% 4.40 +35.1%

Draw 24.0% 25.6% 3.90 -3.8%

Away win 45.3% 62.5% 1.60 -27.5%

Over 2.5 59.8% 69.4% 1.44 -13.9%

Over 3.5 36.6% 47.6% 2.10 -23.1%

BTTS 61.3% 66.7% 1.50 -8.1%

Home O1.5 37.8% 36.4% 2.75 +4.0%

Away O1.5 48.5% 66.7% 1.50 -27.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 39%

ROI 9.7%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 50%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob61.3%

A 45% / xG 1.3-1.8 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 1–2✓ 9.5%

#3 2–1 6.8%

#4 0–2 7.5%

#5 0–1 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vaprus1.3

Flora Tallinn1.8

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.8% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

VAPRUS · PPG 1.55

FLORA TALLINN · PPG 2.10

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.52 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Vaprus (H) 30.7%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +35.1%

Draw 24.0%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -3.8%

Flora Tallinn (A) 45.3%

ODDS 1.60 · IMPLIED 62.5% EV -27.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vaprus face Flora Tallinn in Estonia - Meistriliiga on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vaprus a 31% chance, the draw 24% and Flora Tallinn 45%, so Flora Tallinn are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Vaprus and 1.8 for Flora Tallinn (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vaprus are averaging 1.55 points per game versus 2.10 for Flora Tallinn. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +28.6%. This match finished 1-2.

Vaprus vs Flora Tallinn Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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