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Paide vs Nõmme United Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Matchday 24 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 14:00

Paide

PPG 1.90 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDWW

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Nõmme United

PPG 1.18 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLLL 

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.9% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-13.3%0-21.9%0-30.7%0-4+0.3%1 1-06.9%1-18.0%1-24.6%1-31.8%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.3%2-19.5%2-25.5%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-06.6%3-17.6%3-24.4%3-31.7%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-07.0%4+-18.0%4+-24.6%4+-31.8%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.3% 69.4% 1.44 -18.9%

Draw 21.7% 23.8% 4.20 -5.3%

Away win 22.0% 17.2% 5.80 +16.6%

Over 2.5 64.9% 73.5% 1.36 -11.7%

Over 3.5 43.5% 54.6% 1.83 -20.4%

BTTS 61.3% 66.7% 1.50 -8.1%

Home O1.5 65.1% 73.5% 1.36 -11.5%

Away O1.5 35.6% 36.4% 2.75 -2.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 67 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 39%

ROI 9.7%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob61.3%

H 56% / xG 2.4-1.1 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.0%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 2–0 8.3%

#4 3–1 7.6%

#5 1–2 4.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Paide2.4

Nõmme United1.1

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.9% · O3.5 PROB 43.5%

Form & verdict PPG

PAIDE · PPG 1.90

NÕMME UNITED · PPG 1.18

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.24 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Paide (H) 56.3%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -18.9%

Draw 21.7%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -5.3%

Nõmme United (A) 22.0%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV +16.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Paide face Nõmme United in Estonia - Meistriliiga on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Paide a 56% chance, the draw 22% and Nõmme United 22%, so Paide are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Paide and 1.1 for Nõmme United (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Paide are averaging 1.90 points per game versus 1.18 for Nõmme United. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +20.4%. This match finished 4-1.

Paide vs Nõmme United Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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