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Tammeka vs Kuressaare Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Matchday 24 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 14:00

Tammeka

PPG 1.60 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWWW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Kuressaare

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWLD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.3%0-18.1%0-24.0%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.6%1-112.3%1-26.0%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.5%2-19.3%2-24.5%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.8%3-14.7%3-22.3%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-12.5%4+-21.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.9% 55.6% 1.80 -17.4%

Draw 24.7% 27.0% 3.70 -5.2%

Away win 29.4% 27.8% 3.60 +3.5%

Over 2.5 53.9% 60.6% 1.65 -11.1%

Over 3.5 31.6% 38.5% 2.60 -17.8%

BTTS 54.7% 63.7% 1.57 -14.1%

Home O1.5 40.0% 58.8% 1.70 -32.0%

Away O1.5 27.7% 38.2% 2.62 -16.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 39%

ROI 9.7%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.7%

H 46% / xG 1.5-1.0 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 1–0✓ 12.6%

#3 2–0 9.5%

#4 2–1 9.3%

#5 0–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tammeka1.5

Kuressaare1.0

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

TAMMEKA · PPG 1.60

KURESSAARE · PPG 0.83

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.53 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Tammeka (H) 45.9%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -17.4%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -5.2%

Kuressaare (A) 29.4%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +3.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tammeka face Kuressaare in Estonia - Meistriliiga on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tammeka a 46% chance, the draw 25% and Kuressaare 29%, so Tammeka are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Tammeka and 1.0 for Kuressaare (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tammeka are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 0.83 for Kuressaare. This match finished 1-0.

Tammeka vs Kuressaare Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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