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Flora Tallinn vs Tammeka Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Matchday 22 ·Wednesday, September 2, 2026, 16:00

Flora Tallinn

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWLL

UPCOMING

Tammeka

PPG 1.45 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWWW

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 64.6% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-14.2%0-22.2%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-08.7%1-19.1%1-24.7%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.5%2-19.9%2-25.2%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.9%3-17.1%3-23.7%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-06.2%4+-16.4%4+-23.4%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.1% 62.5% 1.60 -15.0%

Draw 21.6% 24.4% 4.10 -6.9%

Away win 25.4% 23.1% 4.33 +6.0%

Over 2.5 61.4% 72.5% 1.38 -15.3%

Over 3.5 39.6% 51.3% 1.95 -22.8%

BTTS 55.9% 70.4% 1.42 -20.6%

Home O1.5 64.6% 70.4% 1.42 -8.3%

Away O1.5 32.5% 41.7% 2.40 -22.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 39%

ROI 9.7%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.9%

H 53% / xG 2.2-1.0 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.1%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.5%

#4 1–2 4.7%

#5 1–0 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Flora Tallinn2.2

Tammeka1.0

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.4% · O3.5 PROB 39.6%

Form & verdict PPG

FLORA TALLINN · PPG 1.50

TAMMEKA · PPG 1.45

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.13 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Flora Tallinn (H) 53.1%

ODDS 1.60 · IMPLIED 62.5% EV -15.0%

Draw 21.6%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -6.9%

Tammeka (A) 25.4%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +6.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Flora Tallinn face Tammeka in Estonia - Meistriliiga on Wednesday, September 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Flora Tallinn a 53% chance, the draw 22% and Tammeka 25%, so Flora Tallinn are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Flora Tallinn and 1.0 for Tammeka (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Flora Tallinn are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.45 for Tammeka.

Flora Tallinn vs Tammeka Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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