Today / Egypt - Premier League / Masr vs Al Ahly

Masr vs Al Ahly Prediction— Egypt - Premier League

Matchday 2 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 17:00

Masr

PPG 1.62 · HOME

LAST 5

DLW ··

0 – 2

FULL TIME

Al Ahly

PPG 1.64 · AWAY

LAST 5

WW ···

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.8%0-111.7%0-27.0%0-32.8%0-4+1.1%1 1-011.1%1-113.2%1-27.9%1-33.1%1-4+1.2%2 2-06.3%2-17.5%2-24.5%2-31.8%2-4+0.7%3 3-02.4%3-12.8%3-21.7%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.0%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.6% 15.4% 6.50 +124.9%

Draw 31.2% 25.0% 4.00 +24.8%

Away win 34.2% 68.5% 1.46 -50.1%

Over 2.5 44.2% 52.4% 1.91 -15.6%

Over 3.5 25.6% 29.9% 3.35 -8.5%

BTTS 48.5% 50.0% 2.00 -3.0%

Home O1.5 31.1% 20.0% 5.00 +55.5%

Away O1.5 34.6% 60.6% 1.65 -42.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 72 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -0.5%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob48.5%

D 31% / xG 1.1-1.2 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–0 9.8%

#3 1–0 11.1%

#4 0–1 11.7%

#5 2–1 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Masr1.1

Al Ahly1.2

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.2% · O3.5 PROB 25.6%

Form & verdict PPG

MASR · PPG 1.62

AL AHLY · PPG 1.64

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.06, combined xG 2.32 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Masr (H) 34.6%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV +124.9%

Draw 31.2%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +24.8%

Al Ahly (A) 34.2%

ODDS 1.46 · IMPLIED 68.5% EV -50.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Masr face Al Ahly in Egypt - Premier League on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Masr a 35% chance, the draw 31% and Al Ahly 34%, so Masr are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Masr and 1.2 for Al Ahly (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Masr are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 1.64 for Al Ahly. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +79.3%. This match finished 0-2.

Masr vs Al Ahly Prediction— Egypt - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Egypt - Premier League Predictions