Today / Egypt - Premier League / El Gouna FC vs El Mokawloon

El Gouna FC vs El Mokawloon Prediction— Egypt - Premier League

Matchday 3 ·Wednesday, September 2, 2026, 14:00

El Gouna FC logo
El Gouna FC
PPG 1.25 · HOME
LAST 5
DD ···
VS
UPCOMING
El Mokawloon logo
El Mokawloon
PPG 1.05 · AWAY
LAST 5
LL ···

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.1%0-112.1%0-25.2%0-31.5%0-4+0.4%1 1-015.6%1-113.3%1-25.7%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-08.6%2-17.3%2-23.1%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-03.2%3-12.7%3-21.2%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-10.9%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 42.1% 36.0% 2.78 +17.0%
Draw 30.7% 37.3% 2.68 -17.7%
Away win 27.2% 35.5% 2.82 -14.0%
Over 2.5 38.8% 33.9% 2.95 +14.5%
Over 3.5 20.4% 16.0% 6.25 +16.5%
BTTS 48.0% 44.4% 2.25 +8.0%
Home O1.5 30.9% 28.6% 3.50 +8.2%
Away O1.5 24.5% 28.2% 3.55 -7.8%

League track record

Based on 72 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%
O2.5 60%
BTTS 56%
Score Hit 49%
ROI -0.5%
Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE
xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.0%

H 42% / xG 1.1-0.9 / U2.5 39% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.6%
#2 0–0 14.1%
#3 1–1 13.3%
#4 0–1 12.1%
#5 2–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

El Gouna FC1.1
El Mokawloon0.9

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.8% · O3.5 PROB 20.4%

Form & verdict PPG

EL GOUNA FC · PPG 1.25

EL MOKAWLOON · PPG 1.05

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected
65%
HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.25, combined xG 1.96 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

El Gouna FC (H) 42.1%
ODDS 2.78 · IMPLIED 36.0% EV +17.0%
Draw 30.7%
ODDS 2.68 · IMPLIED 37.3% EV -17.7%
El Mokawloon (A) 27.2%
ODDS 2.82 · IMPLIED 35.5% EV -14.0%

Season Statistics average per match · 2 matches · 2026

El Gouna FC ▾ lower is better El Mokawloon

Attack

14.5
Shots
7.5
5.0
Shots on target
4.0
4.5
Shots off target
3.5
5.0
Blocked shots
0.0
8.0
Shots inside box
3.0
6.5
Shots outside box
4.5
34.5%
Shooting accuracy
53.3%
20.0%
Goals per shot on target
25.0%
1.00
Goals
1.00
0.99
xG for
0.30

Defence

10.0
Shots faced
13.0
2.0
Shots on target faced
6.0
1.00
Goals conceded
2.00
0.65
xG against
0.99
1.0
Goalkeeper saves
4.0

Control

50.0%
Possession
46.5%
320
Passes
316
244
Accurate passes
222
76.4%
Pass accuracy
70.2%
4.0
Corners
3.5
4.0
Corners faced
5.5
3.5
Offsides
0.5

Discipline

13.0
Fouls
17.5
4.0
Yellow cards
2.0
0.50
Red cards
0.00

Match Preview & Prediction

El Gouna FC face El Mokawloon in Egypt - Premier League on Wednesday, September 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives El Gouna FC a 42% chance, the draw 31% and El Mokawloon 27%, so El Gouna FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for El Gouna FC and 0.9 for El Mokawloon (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, El Gouna FC are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 1.05 for El Mokawloon. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +33.9%.

PredictVantage

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