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El Mokawloon vs AL Masry Prediction— Egypt - Premier League

Matchday 2 ·Thursday, August 27, 2026, 17:00

El Mokawloon

PPG 1.29 · HOME

LAST 5

LL ···

2 – 3

FULL TIME

AL Masry

PPG 1.42 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWL ··

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.3%0-116.1%0-27.9%0-32.6%0-4+0.8%1 1-013.5%1-113.3%1-26.6%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-05.6%2-15.5%2-22.7%2-30.9%2-4+0.3%3 3-01.5%3-11.5%3-20.7%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.4%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.1% 29.0% 3.45 +0.2%

Draw 34.8% 34.7% 2.88 +0.2%

Away win 36.1% 45.0% 2.22 -19.9%

Over 2.5 34.2% 37.7% 2.65 -9.4%

Over 3.5 18.0% 19.0% 5.25 -3.3%

BTTS 42.7% 47.6% 2.10 -10.3%

Home O1.5 30.9% 25.6% 3.90 +20.5%

Away O1.5 29.2% 36.4% 2.75 -11.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 72 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -0.5%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob42.7%

D 35% / xG 0.8-1.0 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 16.3%

#2 1–1 13.3%

#3 0–1 16.1%

#4 1–0 13.5%

#5 0–2 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

El Mokawloon0.8

AL Masry1.0

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.2% · O3.5 PROB 18.0%

Form & verdict PPG

EL MOKAWLOON · PPG 1.29

AL MASRY · PPG 1.42

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.16, combined xG 1.81 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

El Mokawloon (H) 29.1%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV +0.2%

Draw 34.8%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV +0.2%

AL Masry (A) 36.1%

ODDS 2.22 · IMPLIED 45.0% EV -19.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

El Mokawloon face AL Masry in Egypt - Premier League on Thursday, August 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives El Mokawloon a 29% chance, the draw 35% and AL Masry 36%, so AL Masry are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for El Mokawloon and 1.0 for AL Masry (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, El Mokawloon are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 1.42 for AL Masry. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +20.5%. This match finished 2-3.

El Mokawloon vs AL Masry Prediction— Egypt - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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